The model missed the final outcome (Mjondalen win 1–3).
The model had projected Vidar at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Vidar Mjondalen ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vidar | 36.1% | 15.7% | +20.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 18.9% | +10.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Mjondalen | 34.2% | 65.4% | -31.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Mjondalen's win probability at 65.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 31.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Mjondalen win 1–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Vidar by 31.2 percentage points (67.3% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vidar 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Mjondalen 34.2%
- xG · Vidar 1.32 — Mjondalen 1.28
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vidar 5.85 · Draw 4.84 · Mjondalen 1.40
- Implied 1X2 · Vidar 15.7% · Draw 18.9% · Mjondalen 65.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vidar 5.85 · Draw 4.84 · Mjondalen 1.40
- Implied 1X2 · Vidar 15.7% · Draw 18.9% · Mjondalen 65.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mjondalen win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (31 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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2. Division - Group 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jerv | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 51 |
| 2 | Mjondalen | 21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | Sotra | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 39 |
| 4 | Brattvåg | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 5 | Bjarg | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 38 |
| 6 | Notodden | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Kvik Halden | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 31 |
| 8 | Træff | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 30 |
| 9 | Arendal | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 |
| 10 | Pors Grenland | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 11 | Sandviken | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 22 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 |
| 13 | Vidar | 21 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 10 |
| 14 | Eik-Tønsberg | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sotra | 21 | 45 | 22 | +23 | 39 |
| 2 | jerv | 21 | 44 | 18 | +26 | 51 |
| 3 | Bjarg | 20 | 42 | 26 | +16 | 38 |
| 4 | Brattvåg | 20 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 39 |
| 5 | Mjondalen | 21 | 39 | 28 | +11 | 41 |
| 6 | Træff | 20 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 30 |
| 7 | Sandviken | 21 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 22 |
| 8 | Notodden | 21 | 30 | 17 | +13 | 35 |
| 9 | Kvik Halden | 20 | 28 | 24 | +4 | 31 |
| 10 | Arendal | 20 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 26 |
| 11 | Pors Grenland | 21 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 23 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 21 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 14 |
| 13 | Eik-Tønsberg | 20 | 21 | 47 | -26 | 7 |
| 14 | Vidar | 21 | 19 | 56 | -37 | 10 |
