Predictions / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 / Eik-Tønsberg vs Bjarg

Prediction Audit: Eik-Tønsberg vs Bjarg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Eik-Tønsberg Eik-Tønsberg
Sep 27, 2026 - 12:30
0 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 56%
Bjarg Bjarg

The model missed the final outcome (Bjarg win 0–2).

The model had projected Eik-Tønsberg at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Eik-Tønsberg Bjarg ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bjarg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bjarg -38.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Eik-Tønsberg 38.0% 15.8% +22.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 13.7% +15.9 pp Model Edge
Bjarg 32.4% 70.5% -38.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Bjarg's win probability at 70.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 38.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Bjarg win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Eik-Tønsberg; match finished Bjarg
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Eik-Tønsberg by 38.1 percentage points (76.1% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Eik-Tønsberg 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Bjarg 32.4%
    • xG · Eik-Tønsberg 1.36 — Bjarg 1.24
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Eik-Tønsberg 5.70 · Draw 6.53 · Bjarg 1.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Eik-Tønsberg 16.0% · Draw 13.9% · Bjarg 70.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Eik-Tønsberg 5.86 · Draw 6.73 · Bjarg 1.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Eik-Tønsberg 15.8% · Draw 13.7% · Bjarg 70.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bjarg win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 30/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (38 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10088069

Closing Odds 1.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bjarg win · Eik-Tønsberg 0–2 Bjarg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Eik-Tønsberg; market prices Bjarg instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Eik-Tønsberg 1.36 xG vs Bjarg 1.24 → Eik-Tønsberg 38.0%
  • Market: Bjarg ~15.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 2. Division - Group 1 Matches Track Eik-Tønsberg Next Match Prediction Track Bjarg Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Eik-Tønsberg & Bjarg!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
2. Division - Group 1 2. Division - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 jerv 21 16 3 2 51
2 Mjondalen 21 13 2 6 41
3 Sotra 21 12 3 6 39
4 Brattvåg 20 12 3 5 39
5 Bjarg 20 12 2 6 38
6 Notodden 21 10 5 6 35
7 Kvik Halden 20 9 4 7 31
8 Træff 20 8 6 6 30
9 Arendal 20 7 5 8 26
10 Pors Grenland 21 6 5 10 23
11 Sandviken 21 6 4 11 22
12 Lysekloster 21 3 5 13 14
13 Vidar 21 2 4 15 10
14 Eik-Tønsberg 20 2 1 17 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sotra 21 45 22 +23 39
2 jerv 21 44 18 +26 51
3 Bjarg 20 42 26 +16 38
4 Brattvåg 20 41 24 +17 39
5 Mjondalen 21 39 28 +11 41
6 Træff 20 36 36 0 30
7 Sandviken 21 32 45 -13 22
8 Notodden 21 30 17 +13 35
9 Kvik Halden 20 28 24 +4 31
10 Arendal 20 28 34 -6 26
11 Pors Grenland 21 24 30 -6 23
12 Lysekloster 21 23 45 -22 14
13 Eik-Tønsberg 20 21 47 -26 7
14 Vidar 21 19 56 -37 10
2. Division - Group 1 Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 Predictions