Predictions / Football / Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 / Træff vs Kvik Halden

Prediction Audit: Træff vs Kvik Halden Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Træff Træff
Sep 27, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.44
4 1.16
xG Accuracy: 31%
Kvik Halden Kvik Halden

The model missed the final outcome (Kvik Halden win 0–4).

The model had projected Træff at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Træff Kvik Halden ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Kvik Halden -3.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Træff 41.9% 40.9% +1.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.3% 27.0% +2.3 pp Aligned
Kvik Halden 28.8% 32.0% -3.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kvik Halden win 0–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Træff; match finished Kvik Halden

Market lesson

The full-time result was Kvik Halden win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Træff 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Kvik Halden 28.8%
    • xG · Træff 1.44 — Kvik Halden 1.16
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Træff 2.24 · Draw 3.39 · Kvik Halden 2.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Træff 40.9% · Draw 27.0% · Kvik Halden 32.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Træff 2.24 · Draw 3.39 · Kvik Halden 2.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Træff 40.9% · Draw 27.0% · Kvik Halden 32.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kvik Halden win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 83/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10084553

Closing Odds 2.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kvik Halden win · Træff 0–4 Kvik Halden
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. Division - Group 1
  • Fixture: Træff vs Kvik Halden
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): Træff 1.44 — Kvik Halden 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 46.0% · Implied: 37.2% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +15.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Division - Group 1 2. Division - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 jerv 21 16 3 2 51
2 Mjondalen 21 13 2 6 41
3 Sotra 21 12 3 6 39
4 Brattvåg 20 12 3 5 39
5 Bjarg 20 12 2 6 38
6 Notodden 21 10 5 6 35
7 Kvik Halden 20 9 4 7 31
8 Træff 20 8 6 6 30
9 Arendal 20 7 5 8 26
10 Pors Grenland 21 6 5 10 23
11 Sandviken 21 6 4 11 22
12 Lysekloster 21 3 5 13 14
13 Vidar 21 2 4 15 10
14 Eik-Tønsberg 20 2 1 17 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sotra 21 45 22 +23 39
2 jerv 21 44 18 +26 51
3 Bjarg 20 42 26 +16 38
4 Brattvåg 20 41 24 +17 39
5 Mjondalen 21 39 28 +11 41
6 Træff 20 36 36 0 30
7 Sandviken 21 32 45 -13 22
8 Notodden 21 30 17 +13 35
9 Kvik Halden 20 28 24 +4 31
10 Arendal 20 28 34 -6 26
11 Pors Grenland 21 24 30 -6 23
12 Lysekloster 21 23 45 -22 14
13 Eik-Tønsberg 20 21 47 -26 7
14 Vidar 21 19 56 -37 10
2. Division - Group 1 Norway. 2. Division - Group 1 Predictions