Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -11.2% · EV No -1.3%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Velo Clube U20 Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 37.1%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 45.5%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Velo Clube U20, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (45.5% vs modelo 37.1%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Velo Clube U20 -8.5 pp
- Amplitud
- 2/2
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo coinciden en términos generales en {equipo}. La divergencia restante puede reflejar diferencias en los supuestos de fortaleza del equipo más que un desacuerdo direccional.
Sin embargo, União São João U20 ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en União São João U20.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| União São João U20 | 33.31% | 28.98% | +4.3 pp |
| Empate | 29.63% | 25.47% | +4.2 pp |
| Velo Clube U20 | 37.06% | 45.55% | -8.5 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+7.7% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Modelo magro (no es una apuesta predeterminada): {elegir}
Convicción moderada (5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Velo Clube U20 · Probabilidad del modelo 37.0%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 45.6%
EV línea de consenso: -18.4%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -5.5% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.0/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.0 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -16.6% ·
EV inferior +7.7%
(2 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -11.2% · EV No -1.3%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -11.2% · EV No -1.3%
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.99
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5235,
"best_odd": 1.985,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0445,
"ev": -0.1841,
"implied_prob": 0.4555,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.411
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2814,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0546,
"implied_prob": 0.2547,
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2663
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2803,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.2898,
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.302
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.17,
"best_yes_odd": 1.63,
"edge_no": 0.0261,
"edge_yes": -0.0261,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0127,
"ev_yes": -0.1117,
"implied_no": 0.4289,
"implied_yes": 0.5711,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.08,
"edge_over": -0.0631,
"edge_under": 0.0631,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_under": 0.0774,
"implied_over": 0.5451,
"implied_under": 0.4549,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0774,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0445,
"ev": -0.1841,
"implied_prob": 0.4555,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Velo Clube U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0127,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0631,
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4549,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1547259,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0774,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Velo Clube U20",
"home": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o U20"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.024697,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.4549,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547259,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T12:49:32.804819+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Brazil. Paulista - U20 Predicciones
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