Tenga cuidado
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Gremio Prudente U20, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (55.6% vs modelo 39.9%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Mayor movimiento del día
↔ Movimiento gradual durante 7h 59m
Bet365 lideró el repricing en Tanabi SP U20 (19.0%) — casa sharp movió antes del seguimiento más amplio.
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Gremio Prudente U20 que la estimación justa actual.
Sin embargo, Tanabi SP U20 ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 19.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte. La confirmación sigue siendo limitada (3/7 libros), lo que sugiere un interés temprano en lugar de un movimiento amplio del mercado.
Aléjate de Tanabi SP U20: las probabilidades aumentan con 19.0% (debilitamiento del apoyo).
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio Prudente U20 | 39.94% | 55.58% | -15.6 pp |
| Empate | 29.48% | 24.88% | +4.6 pp |
| Tanabi SP U20 | 30.58% | 19.54% | +11.0 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
Tanabi SP U20 market context before kickoff
⚡ Movimiento liderado por sharp on Tanabi SP U20
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
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"unified_decision": {
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"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0678,
"ev": -0.2167,
"implied_prob": 0.544,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gremio Prudente U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0443,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0388,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1547252,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tanabi SP U20",
"home": "Gremio Prudente U20"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547252,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:02:03.923978+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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