Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -12.2% · EV No -1.3%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Mauá U20 Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 36.1%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 28.5%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Água Santa U20 -10.7 pp
- Amplitud
- 4/5
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Água Santa U20 que la estimación justa actual.
El comportamiento actual del mercado sugiere un amplio acuerdo en que Água Santa U20 es el lado dominante.
- Es posible que los inversores estén incorporando información que no se refleja plenamente en el modelo de referencia.
- El contexto específico del torneo puede cambiar los precios del mercado.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mauá U20 | 36.11% | 28.48% | +7.6 pp |
| Empate | 29.65% | 26.61% | +3.0 pp |
| Água Santa U20 | 34.24% | 44.91% | -10.7 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+6.2% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Modelo magro (no es una apuesta predeterminada): {elegir}
Convicción moderada (5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Mauá U20 · Probabilidad del modelo 36.1%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 28.5%
EV línea de consenso: -4.5%
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.0/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.0 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -15.7% ·
EV inferior +6.2%
(5 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -12.2% · EV No -1.3%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -12.2% · EV No -1.3%
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.99
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"league_country": "Brazil",
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"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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],
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},
"markets": {
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"away": {
"alpha": 0.504,
"best_odd": 1.985,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0538,
"ev": -0.2153,
"implied_prob": 0.4491,
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3953
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2862,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0792,
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2749
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2657,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.2848,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.305
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.17,
"best_yes_odd": 1.61,
"edge_no": 0.0274,
"edge_yes": -0.0274,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0127,
"ev_yes": -0.1225,
"implied_no": 0.4276,
"implied_yes": 0.5724,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.0537,
"edge_under": 0.0537,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"implied_over": 0.5357,
"implied_under": 0.4643,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.2848,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mau\u00e1 U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0274,
"ev": -0.0127,
"implied_prob": 0.4276,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0537,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4643,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1547254,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "\u00c1gua Santa U20",
"home": "Mau\u00e1 U20"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4643,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547254,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:02:47.192325+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Brazil. Paulista - U20 Predicciones
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