Sí 56.4% · No 43.6%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +16.2% · EV No -25.9%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Mirassol U20 Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 37.8%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 28.2%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Juventus U20 -12.3 pp
- Amplitud
- 2/2
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Juventus U20 que la estimación justa actual.
La actividad del mercado se alinea con la mayor brecha de precios en Juventus U20.
- Es posible que los inversores estén incorporando información que no se refleja plenamente en el modelo de referencia.
- El contexto específico del torneo puede cambiar los precios del mercado.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus U20 | 33.22% | 45.5% | -12.3 pp |
| Empate | 28.96% | 26.31% | +2.6 pp |
| Mirassol U20 | 37.82% | 28.19% | +9.6 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+18.9% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+16.2% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5
— Valor
Mirassol U20 · Probabilidad del modelo 37.9%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 28.2%
EV línea de consenso: -1.2%
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.2%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +18.9% ·
EV inferior -22.4%
(2 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +16.2% · EV No -25.9%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +16.2% · EV No -25.9%
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.0
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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"draw": {
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},
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0659,
"implied_prob": 0.2631,
"model_prob": 0.2896,
"p_final": 0.2707
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4892,
"best_odd": 1.995,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0602,
"ev": -0.2124,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.3319,
"p_final": 0.3948
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.06,
"edge_no": -0.1119,
"edge_yes": 0.1119,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2588,
"ev_yes": 0.1618,
"implied_no": 0.5479,
"implied_yes": 0.4521,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"edge_over": 0.1045,
"edge_under": -0.1045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1891,
"ev_under": -0.2244,
"implied_over": 0.4015,
"implied_under": 0.5985,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1891,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.564,
"draw_prob": 0.2896,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3785,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0248,
"ev": -0.0125,
"implied_prob": 0.2819,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3785,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Mirassol U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1119,
"ev": 0.1618,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"model_prob": 0.564,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1045,
"ev": 0.1891,
"implied_prob": 0.4015,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1547248,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1891,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3785,
"draw": 0.2896,
"home": 0.3319
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1618,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.564,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1618,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.564,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mirassol U20",
"home": "Juventus U20"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.084202,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1891,
"implied_prob": 0.4015,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.506,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547248,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:58:49.017173+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Brazil. Paulista - U20 Predicciones
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