Predicciones / Fútbol / Brazil. Paulista - U20 / XV de Piracicaba U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20

XV de Piracicaba U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jun 12, 2026 - 18:00
1.27
1.33
34% 30% 37%

Evaluación de pronóstico

Pronóstico confiable

Favorito
EC São Bernardo U20 Partido equilibrado
Probabilidad del modelo
36.6%
Probabilidad de mercado
46.4%
Acuerdo de mercado
Moderado
Validación
Aprobar

Resumen:

Ambos se inclinan por EC São Bernardo U20, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (46.4% vs modelo 36.6%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.

Auditoría de Mercado

Acuerdo de mercado
Moderado
Validación
Aprobar
Mayor brecha
EC São Bernardo U20 -9.8 pp
Amplitud
3/3
Actividad actual del mercado
Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.

La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.

Evaluación de mercado

El mercado y el modelo coinciden en términos generales en {equipo}. La divergencia restante puede reflejar diferencias en los supuestos de fortaleza del equipo más que un desacuerdo direccional.

Sin embargo, XV de Piracicaba U20 ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.

La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en XV de Piracicaba U20.

  • Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
Resultado Justo Mercado Borde
XV de Piracicaba U20 33.77% 27.06% +6.7 pp
Empate 29.64% 26.58% +3.1 pp
EC São Bernardo U20 36.59% 46.35% -9.8 pp

Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Veredicto final de apuestas

Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.

  • Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
  • Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+3.6% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Modelo magro (no es una apuesta predeterminada): {elegir}
Baja convicción (4/10): prefiera apuestas más pequeñas o saltee.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Mejor +EV (mercados seguidos)
Menos de 2.5 — Valor
vehículo eléctrico +3.6% Modelo 51.8%
El +EV más fuerte entre los mercados seguidos aquí; no se cumplieron reglas de Primaria más estrictas (p. ej. EV mínimo).
1X2 Poco valor
EC São Bernardo U20 · Probabilidad del modelo 36.6%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 46.4%
EV línea de consenso: -19.4%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -3.6% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Ambos Equipos Marcarán Poco valor
54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -8.4% · EV No -5.4%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Ejecución: sin Primaria / alternativa a tamaño estándar — otros mercados pueden mostrar +EV en las tarjetas de abajo.
Mercado: puede haber una pequeña ineficiencia modelo–precio en líneas marginales o de alta varianza — no es apuesta por defecto; reduzca la apuesta si prueba. (Técnico: al menos una línea seguida supera el umbral +EV a ≥2.0% en las mejores cuotas — no implica apuesta por defecto.)
Fuerza de la decisión: 4.0 / 10
  • Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado -13.2% · EV inferior +3.6% (3 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -8.4% · EV No -5.4%
Should you bet on this match? Solo lectura discrecional: el +EV puede aparecer en líneas finas o outsiders; compárelas con sus límites.

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado

  1. Pronóstico generado
  2. Mercado comparado
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
  5. CLV evaluado
Entrada
1.95
Cierre
Pendiente
CLV
Pendiente

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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          "suppress_value_language": false
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        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
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          "headline": "Balanced match",
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          "market_prob_pct": 46.4,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
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          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
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          "tier": "low",
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
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        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
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          ],
          "follow_up": "However, XV de Piracicaba U20 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on EC S\u00e3o Bernardo U20. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
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          "paragraphs": [
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            "However, XV de Piracicaba U20 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market activity is currently concentrated on XV de Piracicaba U20."
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            "At the same time, XV de Piracicaba U20 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (3/3) supports the current market view on XV de Piracicaba U20."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 9.76,
        "model_validation": {
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          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
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            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
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        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
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            "side": "home"
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          {
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            "fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
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            "side": "draw"
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            "fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "EC S\u00e3o Bernardo U20",
            "market_prob_pct": 46.35,
            "side": "away"
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        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on XV de Piracicaba U20.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
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          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 EC S\u00e3o Bernardo U20, Market \u2192 EC S\u00e3o Bernardo U20, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
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        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "market_monitoring",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
        "entry_implied_pct": 51.28,
        "entry_odds": 1.95,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
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            "id": "forecast_generated",
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            "status": "done"
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            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
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          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "pending"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "3/3",
        "current_odds": 3.2,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 3.2,
        "pick_team": "XV de Piracicaba U20",
        "steam_score": 36,
        "steam_team_name": "XV de Piracicaba U20",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 13005,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13005.webp",
      "away_team_name": "EC S\u00e3o Bernardo U20",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1547257,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 13077,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13077.webp",
      "home_team_name": "XV de Piracicaba U20",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 1086,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/1086.webp",
      "league_name": "Paulista - U20",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 18:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.5122,
            "best_odd": 1.95,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.05,
            "ev": -0.1936,
            "implied_prob": 0.4635,
            "model_prob": 0.366,
            "p_final": 0.4136
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2862,
            "best_odd": 3.4,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0088,
            "ev": -0.0663,
            "implied_prob": 0.2658,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.2746
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2699,
            "best_odd": 3.34,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0181,
            "ev": -0.0358,
            "implied_prob": 0.2706,
            "model_prob": 0.3375,
            "p_final": 0.2887
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.08,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.68,
          "edge_no": 0.0082,
          "edge_yes": -0.0082,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0536,
          "ev_yes": -0.0844,
          "implied_no": 0.4468,
          "implied_yes": 0.5532,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.8,
          "best_under_odd": 2.0,
          "edge_over": -0.0431,
          "edge_under": 0.0431,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1324,
          "ev_under": 0.036,
          "implied_over": 0.5251,
          "implied_under": 0.4749,
          "n_bookmakers": 3,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
      "confidence": 4.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2965,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.06
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.036,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.4749,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.05,
          "ev": -0.1936,
          "implied_prob": 0.4635,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.366,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "EC S\u00e3o Bernardo U20"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0082,
          "ev": -0.0536,
          "implied_prob": 0.4468,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0431,
          "ev": 0.036,
          "implied_prob": 0.4749,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1547257,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.036,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.366,
        "draw": 0.2965,
        "home": 0.3375
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "EC S\u00e3o Bernardo U20",
        "home": "XV de Piracicaba U20"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1547257,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T12:49:23.815479+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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