AI correctly predicted the Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi Maccabi Kiryat Malachi ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Kiryat Malachi | 38.0% | 32.6% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.4% | -1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Hapoel Azor | 32.4% | 36.0% | -3.6 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Maccabi Kiryat Malachi's win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.6%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Maccabi Kiryat Malachi more conservatively (32.6% vs model 38.0%, 5.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win 3–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Hapoel Azor 32.4%
- xG · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1.36 — Hapoel Azor 1.24
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 2.73 · Draw 2.83 · Hapoel Azor 2.47
- Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 32.6% · Draw 31.4% · Hapoel Azor 36.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 2.73 · Draw 2.83 · Hapoel Azor 2.47
- Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 32.6% · Draw 31.4% · Hapoel Azor 36.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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