Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Alef / Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

Prediction Audit: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Oct 01, 2026 - 16:30
0 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 49%
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm +1.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 35.2% 33.7% +1.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 30.3% -0.7 pp Aligned
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 35.2% 36.0% -0.8 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Hapoel Umm al-Fahm; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 01, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 35.2%
    • xG · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1.30 — Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1.30
  2. Oct 01, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2.64 · Draw 2.93 · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 2.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 33.7% · Draw 30.3% · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 36.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Oct 01, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2.64 · Draw 2.93 · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 2.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 33.7% · Draw 30.3% · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 36.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Oct 01, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 32/100
Monitoring Confidence 35/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10584217

Closing Odds 2.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–0 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Alef
  • Fixture: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-01 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1.3 — Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.8% · Probability edge: +3.0 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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