Prediction Audit: Shimshon Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shimshon Tel Aviv

Sep 30, 2026 - 12:30

1 1.38

2 1.22

xG Accuracy: 73%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

The model missed the final outcome (Hapoel Ramat HaSharon win 1–2).

The model had projected Shimshon Tel Aviv at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Shimshon Tel Aviv Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Shimshon Tel Aviv	39.0%	40.4%	-1.4 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.5%	28.6%	+0.9 pp	Aligned
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	31.5%	31.0%	+0.5 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hapoel Ramat HaSharon win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Shimshon Tel Aviv; match finished Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

Market lesson

The full-time result was Hapoel Ramat HaSharon win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 30, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Shimshon Tel Aviv 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 31.5%
- xG · Shimshon Tel Aviv 1.38 — Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1.22
Sep 30, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Shimshon Tel Aviv 2.20 · Draw 3.11 · Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2.87
- Implied 1X2 · Shimshon Tel Aviv 40.4% · Draw 28.6% · Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 30, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Shimshon Tel Aviv 2.20 · Draw 3.11 · Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2.87
- Implied 1X2 · Shimshon Tel Aviv 40.4% · Draw 28.6% · Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 30, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Hapoel Ramat HaSharon win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 92/100

Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10584836

Closing Odds 2.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hapoel Ramat HaSharon win · Shimshon Tel Aviv 1–2 Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga Alef
Fixture: Shimshon Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Kickoff: 2026-09-30 12:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Shimshon Tel Aviv 1.38 — Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 51.8% · Probability edge: +2.6 pts · Est. EV: +3.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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