Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Alef / Tzeirey Tira vs FC Jerusalem

Prediction Audit: Tzeirey Tira vs FC Jerusalem Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tzeirey Tira Tzeirey Tira
Sep 30, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
FC Jerusalem FC Jerusalem

The model missed the final outcome (FC Jerusalem win 0–2).

The model had projected Tzeirey Tira at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tzeirey Tira FC Jerusalem ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FC Jerusalem higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FC Jerusalem -23.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tzeirey Tira 36.1% 19.7% +16.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 22.6% +7.0 pp Model Higher
FC Jerusalem 34.2% 57.7% -23.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FC Jerusalem's win probability at 57.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 23.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC Jerusalem win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Tzeirey Tira; match finished FC Jerusalem
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tzeirey Tira by 23.4 percentage points (59.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 30, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tzeirey Tira 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · FC Jerusalem 34.2%
    • xG · Tzeirey Tira 1.32 — FC Jerusalem 1.28
  2. Sep 30, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tzeirey Tira 4.51 · Draw 3.92 · FC Jerusalem 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Tzeirey Tira 19.7% · Draw 22.6% · FC Jerusalem 57.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 30, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tzeirey Tira 4.51 · Draw 3.92 · FC Jerusalem 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Tzeirey Tira 19.7% · Draw 22.6% · FC Jerusalem 57.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 30, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC Jerusalem win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10584544

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Jerusalem win · Tzeirey Tira 0–2 FC Jerusalem
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Alef
  • Fixture: Tzeirey Tira vs FC Jerusalem
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-30 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Tzeirey Tira 1.32 — FC Jerusalem 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.9% · Probability edge: +7.9 pts · Est. EV: +15.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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