1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Cheltenham
- Model probability
- 38.0%
- Market probability
- 31.8%
- Difference
- +6.2 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -0.4%
No Value Edge
Accrington ST vs Cheltenham Prediction
Model leans Cheltenham, but the market disagrees — monitor only.
No Primary Bet
3.0/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Market Conflict
Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.
Other factors
- Market Quality Risk
Consensus EV
+12.8%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
6.2 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
54/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 38.0% |
| Market (no-vig) | 31.8% |
| Difference | +6.2 pp |
The market has moved toward Accrington ST, but the model still strongly favours Cheltenham.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Decision Model probability exceeds market expectationDecision Model 38.0% vs Market 31.8%
- ✓Risk-adjusted EV passes Primary threshold (≥ +5.0%)+12.8%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Cheltenham
Risk factors
- ✗Elevated xG uncertaintyModel confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
- ✗Market pricing conflicts with the model favourite
Market Intelligence
Market move · Accrington ST · ↓ -2.2%
Breadth
2/8
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -2.2%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -2.2%
Move Score
21 (C)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseDiscovery
StatusMarket support
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
⚠ Market moved toward Accrington ST while the model still favours another side.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 64.1%
- Market probability (Over)
- 53.3%
- Difference
- +10.8 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -2.9%
No Value Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 66.6%
- Market probability
- 57.9%
- Difference
- +8.7 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -4.4%
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 66.6%
BTTS No 33.4%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 10.0%
- Market probability (1-1)
- 14.3%
- Difference
- -4.3 pp
- EV @ Market Odds
- -30.0%
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 10.0%
- 1-2 8.4%
- 2-1 8.2%
- 2-2 6.8%
- 0-1 6.2%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 2.2
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Cheltenham at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.8%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Cheltenham as the value side (38.0%)
- Market pricing conflicts with the model lean
- Model–market disagreement blocks Primary sizing
- Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary
- Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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