Accrington ST vs Cheltenham Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Accrington ST
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.63 1.67
Cheltenham
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 6 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Accrington ST opened at -0.25 against Cheltenham in the League Two. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Accrington ST -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Cheltenham than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Cheltenham +0.25
@ 2.53
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+45.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.89 / 2.40 -0.25 1.90 / 2.38 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.51 / 1.83 +0.25 1.51 / 1.81 — 0
Bet365 +0.25 1.50 / 1.82 +0.25 1.50 / 1.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.93 / 2.40 -0.25 1.94 / 2.38 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 2.50 -0.25 1.95 / 2.50 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.90 / 2.47 -0.25 1.92 / 2.44 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
xG 1.63 / 1.67 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
Accrington ST @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.35
Accrington ST @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 2.35
Market price is 19.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.44 7.60
-1.50 4.20 5.75
-1.25 3.82 5.30
-1.00 3.34 4.85
-0.75 2.56 3.34
-0.25 1.94 2.38
0 1.66 2.10
+0.25 1.47 1.78
+0.75 1.24 1.40
+1.00 1.11 1.24
+1.25 1.09 1.18
+1.50 1.07 1.15
+1.75 1.03 1.08

Bet365 Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 6.00
-1.25 3.80 5.75
-1.00 3.45 5.25
-0.75 2.60 3.55
-0.50 2.25 2.85
-0.25 2.00 2.50
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.50 1.85
+0.50 1.40 1.62
+0.75 1.27 1.48
+1.00 1.16 1.30
+1.25 1.14 1.25
+1.50 1.12 1.22

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.21 2.79
-0.25 1.92 2.44
0 1.64 2.08
+0.25 1.47 1.76
+0.50 1.37 1.57

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.95 2.50
+0.25 1.52 1.82

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.45 7.60
-1.50 4.20 5.75
-1.25 3.82 5.30
-1.00 3.34 4.85
-0.75 2.56 3.34
-0.25 1.90 2.38
0 1.66 2.10
+0.25 1.47 1.74
+0.75 1.24 1.40
+1.00 1.11 1.24
+1.25 1.09 1.19
+1.50 1.07 1.15
+1.75 1.03 1.08

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.68 3.64
-0.50 2.29 2.89
-0.25 2.00 2.53
0 1.69 2.15
+0.25 1.51 1.81
+0.50 1.40 1.62
+0.75 1.27 1.46
Primary Bets
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