AI correctly predicted the Switzerland win.
The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Switzerland Switzerland ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 28.6% | 21.2% | +7.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 25.4% | 28.4% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Switzerland | 46.0% | 50.4% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Scotland's win probability at 28.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.2%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Switzerland win 0–3).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Scotland.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.79) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Switzerland more conservatively (38.6% vs model 46.0%, 7.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Switzerland win 0–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 19:13 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Scotland 28.6% · Draw 25.4% · Switzerland 46.1%
- xG · Scotland 1.81 — Switzerland 1.98
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Scotland 4.57 · Draw 3.40 · Switzerland 1.92
- Implied 1X2 · Scotland 21.2% · Draw 28.4% · Switzerland 50.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Scotland 4.57 · Draw 3.40 · Switzerland 1.92
- Implied 1X2 · Scotland 21.2% · Draw 28.4% · Switzerland 50.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Switzerland win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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