1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Port Vale
- Model probability
- 41.8%
- Market probability
- 43.0%
- Difference
- -1.2 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -8.6%
No Value Edge
Port Vale vs Northampton Prediction
Model lean is not a Primary bet — one answer only below.
Selective Lean - No Primary Bet
6.4/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Edge Below Threshold
The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.
Consensus EV
+44.2%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
1.2 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
63/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 41.8% |
| Market (no-vig) | 43.0% |
| Difference | +1.2 pp |
No decisive market alignment yet
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Risk-adjusted EV passes Primary threshold (≥ +5.0%)+44.2%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Port Vale
Risk factors
- ✗Primary conditions not fully met
Market Intelligence
Market move · Port Vale · ↓ -2.3%
2.15 → 2.10
Breadth
2/6
Books moving same direction
Marathonbet
↓ -8.2%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -2.3%
Move Score
9 (C)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseVolatile
30m move+0.0%
VelocityLow
StatusVolatile market
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
Sharp repricing on Port Vale — compare with model probabilities.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 64.1%
- Market probability (Over)
- 42.9%
- Difference
- +21.2 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -0.5%
No Value Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 66.3%
- Market probability
- 48.5%
- Difference
- +17.8 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -1.7%
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 66.3%
BTTS No 33.7%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 10.0%
- Market probability (1-1)
- 15.4%
- Difference
- -5.4 pp
- EV @ Market Odds
- -35.0%
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 10.0%
- 2-1 8.8%
- 1-2 7.7%
- 2-2 6.8%
- 1-0 6.5%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 2.15
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
Selective Lean - No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Port Vale at 41.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.0%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Port Vale as the value side (41.8%)
- No decisive market conflict on direction
- Edge does not clear Primary threshold
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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