Port Vale vs Northampton Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Port Vale
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00 PST
1.76 1.54
Northampton
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Port Vale opened at -0.25 against Northampton in the League Two. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
Port Vale -0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Port Vale -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Northampton than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Northampton +0.25
@ 2.90
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.95
Price Advantage
+48.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.82 / 2.62 -0.25 1.70 / 2.90 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.75 -0.25 1.90 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.86 / 2.62 -0.25 1.77 / 2.70 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.87 / 2.75 -0.25 1.87 / 2.75 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
xG 1.76 / 1.54 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.70
Port Vale @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.05
Port Vale @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.70 vs 2.05
Market price is 17.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.20 7.40
-1.25 3.74 7.40
-1.00 3.35 6.40
-0.75 2.60 4.39
-0.25 1.77 2.70
0 1.55 2.30
+0.25 1.41 1.94
+0.75 1.14 1.44
+1.00 1.07 1.25
+1.25 1.03 1.20
+1.50 1.05 1.17

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.80 7.00
-1.00 3.45 6.40
-0.75 2.60 4.10
-0.50 2.15 3.30
-0.25 1.90 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.95
+0.50 1.32 1.68
+0.75 1.23 1.48
+1.00 1.12 1.30
+1.25 1.10 1.25

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 2.75
+0.25 1.44 1.90

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.82 7.90
-1.25 3.34 7.40
-1.00 2.97 6.90
-0.75 2.28 4.40
-0.25 1.70 2.90
0 1.46 2.54
+0.25 1.32 1.95
+0.75 1.14 1.50
+1.00 1.04 1.30
+1.25 1.03 1.24
+1.50 1.02 1.18
Primary Bets
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