Predictions / Football / Japan. J-League Cup / Fukushima United vs Mito Hollyhock

Prediction Audit: Fukushima United vs Mito Hollyhock Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fukushima United Fukushima United
Sep 29, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.30
7 1.30
xG Accuracy: 15%
Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock

The model missed the final outcome (Mito Hollyhock win 0–7).

The model had projected Fukushima United at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fukushima United Mito Hollyhock ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-7 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Mito Hollyhock higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mito Hollyhock -35.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fukushima United 35.2% 12.2% +22.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 16.7% +13.0 pp Model Edge
Mito Hollyhock 35.2% 71.1% -35.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Mito Hollyhock's win probability at 71.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 35.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mito Hollyhock win 0–7.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fukushima United by 35.9 percentage points (71.1% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 29, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fukushima United 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Mito Hollyhock 35.2%
    • xG · Fukushima United 1.30 — Mito Hollyhock 1.30
  2. Sep 29, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fukushima United 7.67 · Draw 5.62 · Mito Hollyhock 1.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Fukushima United 12.2% · Draw 16.7% · Mito Hollyhock 71.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fukushima United 7.67 · Draw 5.62 · Mito Hollyhock 1.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Fukushima United 12.2% · Draw 16.7% · Mito Hollyhock 71.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mito Hollyhock win · 0–7
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 31/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (36 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10418081

Closing Odds 1.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mito Hollyhock win · Fukushima United 0–7 Mito Hollyhock
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Fukushima United; market prices Mito Hollyhock instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Fukushima United 1.30 xG vs Mito Hollyhock 1.30 → Fukushima United 35.2%
  • Market: Mito Hollyhock ~12.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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