Predictions / Football / Iran. Azadegan League / Mes Rafsanjan vs Be'sat Kermanshah

Prediction Audit: Mes Rafsanjan vs Be'sat Kermanshah Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan
Sep 29, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
Be'sat Kermanshah Be'sat Kermanshah

AI correctly predicted the Mes Rafsanjan win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Mes Rafsanjan considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Mes Rafsanjan +6.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mes Rafsanjan 40.4% 34.0% +6.4 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 31.9% -2.5 pp Aligned
Be'sat Kermanshah 30.1% 34.0% -3.9 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Mes Rafsanjan's win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.0%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Mes Rafsanjan win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mes Rafsanjan.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mes Rafsanjan more conservatively (34.0% vs model 40.4%, 6.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Mes Rafsanjan win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 29, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mes Rafsanjan 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Be'sat Kermanshah 30.1%
    • xG · Mes Rafsanjan 1.41 — Be'sat Kermanshah 1.19
  2. Sep 29, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mes Rafsanjan 2.63 · Draw 2.76 · Be'sat Kermanshah 2.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Mes Rafsanjan 33.9% · Draw 32.3% · Be'sat Kermanshah 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Sep 29, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mes Rafsanjan 2.62 · Draw 2.79 · Be'sat Kermanshah 2.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Mes Rafsanjan 34.0% · Draw 31.9% · Be'sat Kermanshah 34.0%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Sep 29, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mes Rafsanjan win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 68/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10419125

Closing Odds 2.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mes Rafsanjan win · Mes Rafsanjan 1–0 Be'sat Kermanshah
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Azadegan League
  • Fixture: Mes Rafsanjan vs Be'sat Kermanshah
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-29 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Mes Rafsanjan 1.41 — Be'sat Kermanshah 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 31.6% · Probability edge: +16.6 pts · Est. EV: +40.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League Azadegan League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Saipa 3 3 0 0 9
2 Ario Eslamshahr 3 2 0 1 6
3 Pars Jonoubi JAM 3 1 2 0 5
4 Fard Alborz 3 1 2 0 5
5 Naft Bandar Abbas 3 1 2 0 5
6 Be'sat Kermanshah 2 1 1 0 4
7 Naft Masjed Soleyman 3 1 0 2 3
8 Shahin Bandar Ameri 3 0 3 0 3
9 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 3 0 3 0 3
10 Niroye Zamini 3 1 0 2 3
11 Mes Rafsanjan 2 0 2 0 2
12 Novin Ahvaz 3 0 2 1 2
13 Mes Kerman 3 0 2 1 2
14 Naft Gachsaran 3 0 2 1 2
15 Mes Soongoun 3 0 2 1 2
16 Havadar 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Saipa 3 5 1 +4 9
2 Naft Masjed Soleyman 3 5 4 +1 3
3 Novin Ahvaz 3 4 5 -1 2
4 Be'sat Kermanshah 2 3 0 +3 4
5 Pars Jonoubi JAM 3 3 2 +1 5
6 Ario Eslamshahr 3 3 3 0 6
7 Shahin Bandar Ameri 3 3 3 0 3
8 Fard Alborz 3 2 1 +1 5
9 Naft Bandar Abbas 3 2 1 +1 5
10 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 3 2 2 0 3
11 Niroye Zamini 3 2 3 -1 3
12 Mes Kerman 3 2 3 -1 2
13 Mes Soongoun 3 1 3 -2 2
14 Mes Rafsanjan 2 0 0 0 2
15 Naft Gachsaran 3 0 1 -1 2
16 Havadar 3 0 5 -5 1
Azadegan League Iran. Azadegan League Predictions