Predictions / Football / Bolivia. Primera División / Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs The Strongest

Prediction Audit: Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs The Strongest Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gualberto Villarroel SJ Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Jul 19, 2026 - 15:00
0 2.48
0 1.24
xG Accuracy: 36%
The Strongest The Strongest

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 57.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gualberto Villarroel SJ Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Gualberto Villarroel SJ considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Gualberto Villarroel SJ +31.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 57.1% 25.8% +31.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 21.9% 25.8% -3.9 pp Aligned
The Strongest 21.1% 48.4% -27.3 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Gualberto Villarroel SJ's win probability at 57.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.8%, a difference of 31.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Gualberto Villarroel SJ by 31.2 percentage points (25.9% vs model 57.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 19, 2026 · 19:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 57.1% · Draw 21.9% · The Strongest 21.0%
    • xG · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2.48 — The Strongest 1.24
  2. Jul 19, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3.08 · Draw 3.57 · The Strongest 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 29.7% · Draw 25.6% · The Strongest 44.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3.54 · Draw 3.55 · The Strongest 1.89
    • Implied 1X2 · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 25.8% · Draw 25.8% · The Strongest 48.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 21/100 · Not reliable
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (84%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 5/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 21:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1765851

Closing Odds 3.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 0–0 The Strongest
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Gualberto Villarroel SJ; market prices The Strongest instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2.48 xG vs The Strongest 1.24 → Gualberto Villarroel SJ 57.1%
  • Market: The Strongest ~25.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Always Ready 20 13 6 1 45
2 Bolívar 20 14 3 3 45
3 The Strongest 20 12 6 2 42
4 Real Potosí 20 8 8 4 32
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 9 3 8 30
6 Aurora 20 7 9 4 30
7 Guabirá 20 8 5 7 29
8 Blooming 20 6 9 5 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 8 3 9 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 7 4 9 25
11 Real Oruro 20 6 3 11 21
12 ABB 20 6 2 12 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 6 2 12 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 5 3 12 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 4 4 12 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 2 8 10 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 54 22 +32 45
2 Always Ready 20 47 13 +34 45
3 The Strongest 20 39 22 +17 42
4 Oriente Petrolero 20 36 27 +9 30
5 Guabirá 20 32 39 -7 29
6 Real Oruro 20 32 50 -18 21
7 Aurora 20 31 27 +4 30
8 ABB 20 31 45 -14 20
9 Blooming 20 30 22 +8 27
10 Nacional Potosí 20 30 28 +2 27
11 Real Potosí 20 27 14 +13 32
12 Independiente Petrolero 20 27 35 -8 25
13 Universitario de Vinto 20 26 39 -13 18
14 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 21 37 -16 14
15 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 21 40 -19 20
16 Real Tomayapo 20 15 39 -24 16
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 1.6 1.4 +0.2 45
2 Real Potosí 20 1.4 1.6 -0.2 32
3 Always Ready 20 — — — 45
4 The Strongest 20 — — — 42
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 — — — 30
6 Aurora 20 — — — 30
7 Guabirá 20 — — — 29
8 Blooming 20 — — — 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 — — — 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 — — — 25
11 Real Oruro 20 — — — 21
12 ABB 20 — — — 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 — — — 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 — — — 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 — — — 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 — — — 14