Forecast Assessment
Use caution
- Favourite
- San Antonio Bulo Bulo Strong favourite
- Model probability
- 76.6%
- Market probability
- 58.8%
- Market agreement
- Weak
- Validation
- Warning
Summary:
Model and market lean the same side on San Antonio Bulo Bulo, but pricing gaps warrant caution.
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Market Audit
- Market agreement
- Weak
- Validation
- Warning
- Largest gap
- San Antonio Bulo Bulo +17.8 pp
- Breadth
- 10/10
- Current market activity
- No meaningful directional movement yet.
The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on San Antonio Bulo Bulo.
Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on San Antonio Bulo Bulo.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
| Outcome | Fair | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 76.59% | 58.8% | +17.8 pp |
| Draw | 14.36% | 21.26% | -6.9 pp |
| ABB | 9.04% | 19.94% | -10.9 pp |
Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.
Final betting verdict
Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.
- Possible value on 1X2: San Antonio Bulo Bulo (+3.9% EV at best odds)
- Possible value: Over 2.5 (+6.1% EV at best odds)
- Possible value: BTTS No (+3.6% EV at best odds)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
- Primary line identified (+1.0)
- Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
BTTS: EV Yes -9.3% · EV No +3.6%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo market context before kickoff
— Tracking on San Antonio Bulo Bulo
- Odds move
- 1.57 → 1.57 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 10/10
- Steam score
- 40 (B)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Model validation warning
- Forecast Generated
- Market Compared
- Validation Passed
- Closing Recorded
- CLV Evaluated
- Entry
- 1.56
- Closing
- Pending
- CLV
- Pending
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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