Today's Summary
2
Significant Movements
Avg Move
5.3%
Market Movement - Uruguay - Segunda División
Price discovery after publication — how opening markets react before the closing capture window.
Today's Market Analysis
- 2 fixtures saw meaningful repricing today (avg 5.3% move).
- Strongest steam: Cerrito vs Tacuarembo (9.3%, 9 books).
- 3 fixtures showed broad consensus.
- No closing-line validation is yet available for today's open fixtures.
Today's Market Health
★★★
☆☆
Mixed signals
Moderate liquidity · Strong consensus · Weak CLV history
Market Metrics
-
Steam Activity 1 moves > thresholdLow
-
Bookmaker Consensus 3 broad repricing eventsLow
-
Market Trend 33% shortening · 33% lengtheningLow
-
CLV Context 0 fixtures with CLV dataPending
Top Movers
- 1 ↓ -9.3%
- 2 ↑ +6.5%
Biggest Steam
-
Cerrito vs Tacuarembo ↓ -9.3% Steam 66
-
2
Uruguay Montevideo vs Colón ↑ +6.5% Steam 45
Highest Breadth
-
1
Cerrito vs Tacuarembo ↓ -9.3% 9/9
-
2
Uruguay Montevideo vs Colón ↑ +6.5% 6/9
Most Books Agree
-
1
Cerrito vs Tacuarembo ↓ -9.3%
-
2
Uruguay Montevideo vs Colón ↑ +6.5%
Fastest Odds Change
-
1
Cerrito vs Tacuarembo ↓ -9.3%
-
2
Uruguay Montevideo vs Colón ↑ +6.5%
Filters apply to the match list below — highlights above stay unchanged.
Signal
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| Match(3) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerrito vs Tacuarembo Segunda División · Sat 19:00 | Tacuarembo | 3.75 |
3.4
kickoff in 3h 23m |
↓ -9.3%
3.75
3.4
🐢 Slow drift over 56h 27m 3.97 → 3.25 → 3.40 |
📈 Steam |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
9/9
Books moving same direction
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -16.9%
William Hill
↓ -13.2%
Betano
↓ -9.7%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -9.3%
Dafabet
↓ -8.3%
BetVictor
↓ -8.1%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -5.6%
1xBet
↓ -5.3%
Marathonbet
↓ -5.2%
|
Steam Score:
66
A
Strong sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +20/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
Largest move today | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Tacuarembo (9.3%, 9/9) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Uruguay Montevideo vs Colón Segunda División · Sat 16:00 | Uruguay Montevideo | 3.1 |
3.3
kickoff in 23m |
↑ +6.5%
3.1
3.3
🐢 Slow drift over 56h 27m 3.70 → 2.85 → 3.30 |
⚡ Sharp-led move |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
6/9
Books moving same direction
Dafabet
↑ +27.6%
Betano
↑ +22.8%
1xBet
↑ +14.7%
Marathonbet
↑ +14.4%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +12.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +6.5%
|
Steam Score:
45
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +14/45
Book synchronization: +20/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Betfair led repricing on Uruguay Montevideo (6.5%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Paysandu vs Rentistas Segunda División · Sat 22:00 | Paysandu | 3.3 |
3.3
since pub · 16h 15m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 3.55 → 3.24 → 3.30 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
6/9
Books moving same direction
1xBet
+0.0%
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
BetVictor
+0.0%
Betano
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
20
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +20/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
Login to see the full betting verdict Sign in free to unlock the Final betting verdict — which markets pass, where +EV may exist, and steam warnings. |
— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on Paysandu (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 9.1% — price repriced then reverted. |
