Today's Summary
1
Significant Movements
Avg Move
10.0%
Price discovery after publication — how opening markets react before the closing capture window.
Low liquidity · Strong consensus · Weak CLV history
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| Match(1) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga · Sat 17:30 | Austria Vienna | 3.0 |
3.3
kickoff in 20m |
↑ +10.0%
3.0
3.3
🐢 Slow drift over 131h 3m 3.47 → 2.90 → 3.30 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
8/10
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +12.1%
Betano
↑ +11.7%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +10.2%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +10.0%
BetVictor
↑ +8.3%
William Hill
↑ +6.7%
Marathonbet
↑ +5.9%
1xBet
↑ +5.5%
|
Steam Score:
34
C
Limited conviction
Modest lengthening — treat as drift tracking rather than steam. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 57% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +22/45
Book synchronization: +24/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -20
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Austria Vienna (10.0%, 8/10) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
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