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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Switzerland Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-2, 0-1, 0-3, 1-2, 1-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"bayes_applied": 1,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.33,
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"fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.46,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.644,
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"model_name": "wc_elo_poisson",
"over_25_prob": 0.5064,
"prediction_confidence": "medium",
"source": "worldcup-poisson",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Qatar or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Switzerland",
"percent_away": "69.3%",
"percent_draw": "21.4%",
"percent_home": "9.4%",
"winner_name": "Qatar"
},
"away_xg": 2.0555983300758585,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Switzerland",
"confidence": 69.3,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Switzerland",
"edge": -0.1106,
"edge_gap": 0.48,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 69.3,
"draw": 21.3,
"home": 9.3
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.22
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Switzerland Win",
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"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.24,
"market_odds": 1.22,
"model_odds": 1.44,
"overround": 2.0,
"prob_edge": -12.5,
"value_pct": -15.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 87.2,
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"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 47.5,
"no_prob": 57.4,
"pick": "Yes",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 42.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.06,
"home_expected": 0.64,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
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{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 13.8
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{
"away": 3,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-3",
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{
"away": 2,
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"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Qatar or Draw",
"prob": 30.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Qatar or Switzerland",
"prob": 78.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Switzerland",
"prob": 90.7
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Switzerland",
"pick_prob": 90.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 69.3,
"draw_pct": 21.4,
"home_pct": 9.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Switzerland"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.7,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
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},
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{
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"model_pct": 69.3
},
{
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{
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],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
"closing": 1.66,
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{
"closing": 2.32,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
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},
"home_xg": 0.6444016699241419,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.155,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -15.5,
"text": "-15.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.151,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.1,
"text": "+15.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 50.6,
"sort_key": 10285.9,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 49.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0931,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0778,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.8,
"text": "+7.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 57.4,
"sort_key": 10070.02,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 42.6
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0868,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -8.7,
"text": "-8.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.8039,
"max_ev": 0.0892,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.9,
"text": "+8.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6933,
"side_label": "Switzerland",
"sort_key": 5271.36,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 822.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-2",
"top_prob": 14.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"alert_team": "Qatar",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.09,
"hero_label": "Switzerland",
"market_prob_pct": 80.4,
"market_team": "Switzerland",
"model_prob_pct": 69.3,
"model_team": "Switzerland",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 93,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.86,
"fair_prob": 9.4,
"label": "Qatar",
"market_prob": 6.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.32,
"fair_prob": 21.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 13.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.09,
"fair_prob": 69.3,
"label": "Switzerland",
"market_prob": 80.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.44,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.44,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.74,
"fair_prob": 42.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 38.86,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.74,
"fair_prob": 57.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 61.14,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 69.3,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Switzerland",
"market_prob_pct": 80.39,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Qatar"
},
"fair_source": "wc_poisson",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.09,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "high",
"fair_confidence_label": "High",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Switzerland",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 80.4,
"model_prob_pct": 69.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Switzerland, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.09,
"hero_label": "Switzerland",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Qatar odds lengthened \u2191 +25.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Qatar has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Switzerland than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Qatar \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Switzerland than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Qatar has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Qatar \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Switzerland more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Qatar has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/14) supports the current market view on Qatar."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 11.09,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 47.9 pp (at 69.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 47.9,
"max_prob_pct": 69.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 9.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Qatar",
"market_prob_pct": 6.54,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 13.08,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 69.3,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Switzerland",
"market_prob_pct": 80.39,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Qatar \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Switzerland (80.4%).",
"However, Qatar has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +25.0%, 11/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Switzerland, Market \u2192 Switzerland, Recent sharp money \u2192 Qatar.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 81.97,
"closing_odds": 1.22,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 81.97,
"entry_odds": 1.22,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 15.0,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 25.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 204h 9m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"11/14 books synchronized on Qatar (25.0% steam, score 93) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "16.50 \u2192 8.60 \u2192 15.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 204h 9m",
"pick_team": "Qatar",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "16.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "8.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "15.00"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 12.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Qatar \u2191 +25.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Qatar",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Qatar \u2191 +25.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 93,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/14",
"current_odds": 15.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 12.0,
"pick_team": "Qatar",
"steam_score": 93,
"steam_team_name": "Qatar",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": 2.06,
"away_team_id": 15,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15.webp",
"away_team_name": "Switzerland",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1489373,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": 0.45,
"home_team_country": "Qatar",
"home_team_id": 1569,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1569.webp",
"home_team_name": "Qatar",
"league_country": "World",
"league_id": 1,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1.webp",
"league_name": "World Cup",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Halftime",
"status_short": "HT",
"venue_city": "Santa Clara",
"venue_name": "Levi\u0027s Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5005,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0553,
"ev": -0.0868,
"implied_prob": 0.8039,
"model_prob": 0.6933,
"p_final": 0.7485
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1752,
"best_odd": 7.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": 0.0892,
"implied_prob": 0.1308,
"model_prob": 0.2133,
"p_final": 0.1452
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1916,
"best_odd": 15.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": 0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.0654,
"model_prob": 0.0934,
"p_final": 0.0707
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.58,
"best_yes_odd": 2.53,
"edge_no": -0.0374,
"edge_yes": 0.0374,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0931,
"ev_yes": 0.0778,
"implied_no": 0.6114,
"implied_yes": 0.3886,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.33,
"edge_over": -0.0744,
"edge_under": 0.0744,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.155,
"ev_under": 0.151,
"implied_over": 0.5804,
"implied_under": 0.4196,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.151,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.426,
"draw_prob": 0.2133,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6933,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 1.411
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0892,
"implied_prob": 0.1308,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2133,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.0654,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.0934,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Qatar",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0553,
"ev": -0.0868,
"implied_prob": 0.8039,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.6933,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Switzerland"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0374,
"ev": 0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.3886,
"model_prob": 0.426,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0744,
"ev": 0.151,
"implied_prob": 0.4196,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1489373,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.151,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.6933,
"draw": 0.2133,
"home": 0.0934
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Switzerland",
"home": "Qatar"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.074594,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.151,
"implied_prob": 0.4196,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.494,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 4
}
},
"fixture_id": 1489373,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T20:54:04.133170+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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