Market Movements - Did the move survive to close?
Finished matches: the 1X2 side with the largest opening→closing odds move.
Descriptive market replay only — not AI picks, steam signals, or a betting strategy. Replay ROI assumes 1 unit flat on that side at the opening line.
Each row tracks the 1X2 side with the largest opening→closing odds move. CLV compares that side's opening line to the captured closing line; Replay ROI is a flat 1-unit backtest on that side only — for market-behavior review, not strategy performance.
Market Reality Check
Does the largest opening→closing move survive to the close? Flat 1-unit replay — market behavior review, not a betting strategy.
Basic match replay is free. Steam breakdown, book consensus, and historical similar-move stats require login.
10
Matches reviewed
40.0%
Largest move held to close
14.3%
Tracked side won
10.0%
Held & won
-37.9%
Replay ROI
Large market moves are common, but most do not survive to the closing line and have not been profitable in this sample.
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Historical pattern performance
Steam Score 85+
— samples
Held to close: 71%
Won: —%
Replay ROI: —
A+ Sharp repricing
— samples
Held to close: 64%
Won: —%
Replay ROI: —
Sharp-led moves
— samples
Held to close: 46%
Won: —%
Replay ROI: —
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| Match(14) | Largest-move side? Home, draw, or away with the biggest opening→closing odds change — a descriptive label, not a bet signal. Home, draw, or away with the biggest opening→closing odds change — a descriptive label, not a bet signal. | Opening | Closing | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | Held to close | Outcome | Score | Market depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Querétaro Femminile vs Toluca Femminile Liga MX Femenil · Fri 01:06 | Querétaro Femminile | 9.0 | 6.8 | +32.4% | ✓ Held | L | 1-1 |
Steam Score
96
A+
Market Breadth
8/9
Sharp-led move
Bet365
P20: 6.80 · P10: 6.80
|
| Cruzeiro vs Bahia Serie A Brasiliana · Fri 00:30 | Bahia | 4.75 | 4.33 | +9.7% | ✓ Held | L | 3-2 |
Steam Score
53
B
Market Breadth
6/10
Sharp-led move
Bet365
P20: 4.33 · P10: 4.33 · P5: 4.33 · P1: 4.33
|
| Santos Laguna W vs Tijuana Femminile Liga MX Femenil · Fri 03:10 | Santos Laguna W | 3.2 | 2.95 | +8.5% | ✓ Held | W | 4-2 |
Steam Score
52
B
Market Breadth
8/10
Sharp-led move
Bet365
P20: 2.95 · P10: 2.95
|
| PSIM Yogyakarta vs Dewa United Liga 1 Indonesia · Fri 08:30 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 4.2 | 4.1 | +2.4% | ✓ Held | L | 1-2 |
Steam Score
6
C
Market Breadth
1/10
Sharp-led move
Bet365
P20: 4.10 · P10: 4.10 · P5: 4.10 · P1: 4.10
|
| Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners A-League · Fri 08:40 | Central Coast Mariners | 5.5 | 5.75 | -4.3% | ✗ Reversed | L | 4-1 |
Steam Score
21
C
Market Breadth
3/10
Sharp-led move
Betfair
P20: 5.75 · P10: 5.75 · P5: 5.75 · P1: 5.75
|
| CS Herediano vs Deportivo Saprissa Primera División Costa Rica · Fri 02:00 | CS Herediano | 2.5 | 3.1 | -19.4% | ✗ Reversed | L | 0-2 |
Steam Score
74
A
Market Breadth
10/10
Sharp-led move
Betfair
P10: 3.10 · P5: 3.10
|
| Canberra FC vs Sydney United Australian Championship · Fri 08:30 | Canberra FC | 5.5 | 6.87 | -19.9% | ✗ Reversed | W | 2-1 |
Steam Score
32
C
Market Breadth
1/9
P20: 6.87 · P10: 6.87 · P5: 6.87 · P1: 6.87
|
| Cancún vs Piratas Liga de Expansión MX · Fri 01:00 | Cancún | 2.55 | 3.35 | -23.9% | ✗ Reversed | L | 1-1 |
Steam Score
84
A+
Market Breadth
10/10
Sharp-led move
Betfair
P20: 3.35 · P10: 3.35 · P5: 3.35
|
| Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya Liga Alef Israele · Fri 08:30 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 3.8 | 5.1 | -25.5% | ✗ Reversed | L | 7-2 |
Steam Score
80
A+
Market Breadth
7/8
Sharp-led move
Bet365
P20: 5.10 · P10: 5.10 · P5: 5.10 · P1: 5.10
|
| Ulaanbaatar vs Tuv Azarganuud Premier League Mongolia · Fri 05:00 | Tuv Azarganuud | 3.2 | 8.5 | -62.4% | ✗ Reversed | L | 3-2 |
Steam Score
81
A+
Market Breadth
4/5
Sharp-led move
Betfair
P20: 8.50 · P10: 8.50 · P5: 8.50 · P1: 8.50
|
| Unión Magdalena vs Independiente Yumbo Primera B Colombia · Fri 00:00 | Independiente Yumbo | 4.2 | — | — | ? No close data | L | 1-1 |
Steam Score
89
A+
Market Breadth
9/9
Sharp-led move
Betfair
|
| Arnett Gardens vs Mount Pleasant Academy Jamaica - Premier League · Fri 00:00 | Arnett Gardens | 3.5 | — | — | ? No close data | L | 1-1 |
Steam Score
88
A+
Market Breadth
9/9
Sharp-led move
Betfair
|
| Independiente del Valle vs Delfín SC Copa Ecuador · Fri 00:00 | Delfín SC | 6.5 | — | — | ? No close data | L | 2-0 |
Steam Score
70
A
Market Breadth
9/10
Sharp-led move
Betfair
|
| CD Marathón vs Platense FC Liga Nacional honduregna · Fri 01:30 | Draw | 4.5 | — | — | ? No close data | L | 3-1 |
Steam Score
76
A+
Market Breadth
9/9
Sharp-led move
Betfair
|
