Guabirá vs Aurora Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Guabirá
Final Score
3 – 1
(HT 2-1)
Aurora
Kick-off 19:00 Stadium Estadio Gilberto Parada

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Guabirá opened at -0.25 against Aurora in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.50 / 1.44
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Guabirá -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Aurora than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Aurora +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.80
Price Advantage
+48.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:25
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
19:00
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.61 / 2.92 -0.25 1.91 / 2.30 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.69 / 2.89 0 1.72 / 2.07 -0.25 +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 -0.25 2.00 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.62 / 2.94 -0.25 1.93 / 2.31 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.20 9.50
-1.75 5.10 6.55
-1.50 4.00 5.15
-1.25 3.59 4.76
-1.00 3.28 4.40
-0.75 2.57 3.15
-0.25 1.93 2.31
0 1.67 2.02
+0.25 1.50 1.74
+0.75 1.27 1.41
+1.00 1.14 1.25
+1.25 1.12 1.21
+1.50 1.10 1.17
+1.75 1.05 1.10

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.70 6.25
-1.25 3.45 5.90
-1.00 3.10 5.50
-0.75 2.42 3.80
-0.50 2.10 3.10
-0.25 2.00 2.68
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.45 1.80
+0.50 1.35 1.70
+0.75 1.25 1.52
+1.00 1.15 1.35
+1.25 1.13 1.30
+1.50 1.12 1.26

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 6.55
-1.50 4.00 5.15
-1.25 3.58 4.75
-1.00 3.28 4.40
-0.75 2.56 3.14
-0.25 1.91 2.30
0 1.67 2.02
+0.25 1.49 1.72
+0.75 1.27 1.40
+1.00 1.14 1.25
+1.25 1.12 1.21
+1.50 1.10 1.17
+1.75 1.05 1.10

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.26 2.68
-0.25 2.01 2.37
0 1.72 2.07
+0.25 1.53 1.79
+0.50 1.43 1.61
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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