Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL B / Jablonec II vs Hradec Králové II

Prediction Audit: Jablonec II vs Hradec Králové II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jablonec II Jablonec II
Sep 27, 2026 - 08:15
1 1.22
2 1.38
xG Accuracy: 79%
Hradec Králové II Hradec Králové II

AI correctly predicted the Hradec Králové II win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hradec Králové II Hradec Králové II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Jablonec II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Jablonec II -16.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jablonec II 31.5% 48.1% -16.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.1% +5.4 pp Model Higher
Hradec Králové II 39.0% 27.8% +11.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Jablonec II's win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 16.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Hradec Králové II win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Jablonec II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Hradec Králové II higher (55.6% vs model 39.0%, 16.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Hradec Králové II win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jablonec II 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Hradec Králové II 39.0%
    • xG · Jablonec II 1.22 — Hradec Králové II 1.38
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jablonec II 1.88 · Draw 3.75 · Hradec Králové II 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Jablonec II 48.1% · Draw 24.1% · Hradec Králové II 27.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jablonec II 1.88 · Draw 3.75 · Hradec Králové II 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Jablonec II 48.1% · Draw 24.1% · Hradec Králové II 27.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hradec Králové II win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10080082

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hradec Králové II win · Jablonec II 1–2 Hradec Králové II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL B
  • Fixture: Jablonec II vs Hradec Králové II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Jablonec II 1.22 — Hradec Králové II 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.8% · Probability edge: +11.0 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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