AI correctly predicted the Lagun Onak win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Lagun Onak Lagun Onak ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santurtzi | 28.8% | 33.7% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.3% | 31.8% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Lagun Onak | 41.9% | 34.6% | +7.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Lagun Onak's win probability at 41.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.6%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Lagun Onak win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Lagun Onak.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Lagun Onak more conservatively (34.6% vs model 41.9%, 7.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Lagun Onak win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 09:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Santurtzi 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Lagun Onak 41.9%
- xG · Santurtzi 1.16 — Lagun Onak 1.44
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 08:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Santurtzi 2.69 · Draw 2.85 · Lagun Onak 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Santurtzi 33.7% · Draw 31.8% · Lagun Onak 34.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 09:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Santurtzi 2.69 · Draw 2.85 · Lagun Onak 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Santurtzi 33.7% · Draw 31.8% · Lagun Onak 34.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 09:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lagun Onak win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Derio | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Touring | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Leioa | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Erandio | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Eibar III | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Durango | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Aretxabaleta | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Sodupe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Deportivo Alavés III | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad III | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Pasaia KE | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | R. Union B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Beasain | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Lagun Onak | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 16 | Santurtzi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | San Ignacio | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | Leioa | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Eibar III | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 | Deportivo Alavés III | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Durango | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Derio | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 7 | Touring | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Erandio | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad III | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | Pasaia KE | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | R. Union B | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | San Ignacio | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sodupe | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Beasain | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Aretxabaleta | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 16 | Lagun Onak | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Santurtzi | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
