Crewe vs Bristol Rovers Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Crewe
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.57 1.73
Bristol Rovers
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Crewe opened at -0.25 against Bristol Rovers in the League Two. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.15
Crewe +0.15

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Crewe -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.40
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.40 AH points more toward Bristol Rovers than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Bristol Rovers +0.25
@ 2.01
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.40
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+21.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.38 / 1.91 -0.25 2.43 / 1.90 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.83 / 1.50 0 2.17 / 1.68 — -0.25
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.82 -0.25 2.60 / 1.95 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.43 / 1.91 -0.25 2.48 / 1.90 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.45 / 2.02 -0.25 2.50 / 1.95 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.47 / 1.89 -0.25 2.48 / 1.90 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.15
xG 1.57 / 1.73 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.58
Crewe @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.52
Crewe @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.58 vs 2.52
Market price is 2.4% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.75 5.50
-1.50 5.90 4.25
-1.25 5.44 3.85
-1.00 4.95 3.42
-0.75 3.42 2.59
-0.25 2.48 1.90
0 2.10 1.66
+0.25 1.74 1.48
+0.75 1.39 1.23
+1.00 1.23 1.11
+1.25 1.18 1.08
+1.50 1.15 1.07
+1.75 1.08 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.00 4.00
-1.25 5.75 3.55
-1.00 5.25 3.30
-0.75 3.55 2.50
-0.50 3.00 2.20
-0.25 2.60 1.95
0 2.25 1.62
+0.25 1.90 1.48
+0.50 1.65 1.38
+0.75 1.50 1.27
+1.00 1.32 1.16
+1.25 1.27 1.14
+1.50 1.23 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.84 2.18
-0.25 2.48 1.90
0 2.12 1.62
+0.25 1.78 1.46
+0.50 1.58 1.36

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.50 1.95
+0.25 1.82 1.52

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.80 5.50
-1.50 5.90 4.25
-1.25 5.45 3.85
-1.00 4.95 3.42
-0.75 3.42 2.59
-0.25 2.43 1.90
0 2.10 1.66
+0.25 1.74 1.45
+0.75 1.39 1.23
+1.00 1.23 1.11
+1.25 1.18 1.08
+1.50 1.15 1.07
+1.75 1.08 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.76 2.80
-0.50 2.98 2.33
-0.25 2.58 2.01
0 2.17 1.68
+0.25 1.80 1.49
+0.50 1.60 1.38
+0.75 1.43 1.26
Primary Bets
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