Predictions / Football / England. Non League Premier - Isthmian / Dulwich Hamlet vs Aveley

Prediction Audit: Dulwich Hamlet vs Aveley Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dulwich Hamlet Dulwich Hamlet
Sep 29, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.19
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 54%
Aveley Aveley

The model missed the final outcome (Dulwich Hamlet win 2–0).

The model had projected Aveley at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Aveley Dulwich Hamlet ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Dulwich Hamlet higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dulwich Hamlet -7.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dulwich Hamlet 30.1% 38.0% -7.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 24.2% +5.2 pp Model Higher
Aveley 40.4% 37.7% +2.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Dulwich Hamlet's win probability at 38.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 7.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dulwich Hamlet win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Dulwich Hamlet. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Aveley; match finished Dulwich Hamlet
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Aveley by 7.9 percentage points (48.3% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 29, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dulwich Hamlet 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Aveley 40.5%
    • xG · Dulwich Hamlet 1.19 — Aveley 1.41
  2. Sep 29, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dulwich Hamlet 2.38 · Draw 3.74 · Aveley 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Dulwich Hamlet 38.0% · Draw 24.2% · Aveley 37.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 29, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dulwich Hamlet 2.38 · Draw 3.74 · Aveley 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Dulwich Hamlet 38.0% · Draw 24.2% · Aveley 37.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 29, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dulwich Hamlet win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10421357

Closing Odds 2.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dulwich Hamlet win · Dulwich Hamlet 2–0 Aveley
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Non League Premier - Isthmian
  • Fixture: Dulwich Hamlet vs Aveley
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-29 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Dulwich Hamlet 1.19 — Aveley 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.9% · Probability edge: +12.9 pts · Est. EV: +29.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Isthmian Non League Premier - Isthmian — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Enfield Town 8 6 0 2 18
2 Welling United 8 6 0 2 18
3 Dartford 8 6 0 2 18
4 Carshalton Athletic 9 6 0 3 18
5 Lewes 9 5 1 3 16
6 Leatherhead 9 4 3 2 15
7 St Albans City 8 4 2 2 14
8 Ramsgate 8 4 1 3 13
9 Dulwich Hamlet 7 4 1 2 13
10 Eastbourne Borough 8 4 1 3 13
11 Chatham Town 8 4 0 4 12
12 Wingate & Finchley 8 3 2 3 11
13 Aveley 8 3 1 4 10
14 Burgess Hill Town 7 2 4 1 10
15 Cray Wanderers 7 2 3 2 9
16 Maldon & Tiptree 8 3 0 5 9
17 Cheshunt 9 1 5 3 8
18 Brentwood Town 8 2 0 6 6
19 Whyteleafe 8 1 3 4 6
20 Whitehawk 8 1 2 5 5
21 Three Bridges 9 1 2 6 5
22 Stanway Rovers 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Enfield Town 8 23 11 +12 18
2 Ramsgate 8 19 10 +9 13
3 Welling United 8 18 9 +9 18
4 St Albans City 8 17 13 +4 14
5 Leatherhead 9 17 15 +2 15
6 Dulwich Hamlet 7 16 9 +7 13
7 Chatham Town 8 16 13 +3 12
8 Aveley 8 16 14 +2 10
9 Three Bridges 9 16 28 -12 5
10 Carshalton Athletic 9 15 13 +2 18
11 Lewes 9 14 11 +3 16
12 Eastbourne Borough 8 14 11 +3 13
13 Dartford 8 13 8 +5 18
14 Cray Wanderers 7 13 11 +2 9
15 Brentwood Town 8 13 15 -2 6
16 Wingate & Finchley 8 13 18 -5 11
17 Maldon & Tiptree 8 12 21 -9 9
18 Burgess Hill Town 7 11 9 +2 10
19 Whyteleafe 8 10 17 -7 6
20 Whitehawk 8 9 19 -10 5
21 Cheshunt 9 7 12 -5 8
22 Stanway Rovers 8 6 21 -15 4
Non League Premier - Isthmian England. Non League Premier - Isthmian Predictions