Monza vs Sassuolo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Monza
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Sassuolo
Kick-off 18:45 Stadium U-Power Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Monza opened at 0 against Sassuolo in the Serie A. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 7 valid books, with 71% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.45
Monza -0.45

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.54 / 1.05
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Monza 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.45
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.45 AH points more toward Monza than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Monza 0
@ 2.04
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.45
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.53
Price Advantage
+33.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 7 valid books · 71% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
0
18:44
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.99 / 1.82 0 1.98 / 1.83 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.01 / 1.85 0 2.04 / 1.88 0 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.78 / 1.59 +0.25 1.70 / 1.63 +0.25 0
Bet365 0 2.00 / 1.85 0 1.98 / 1.88 0 0
1xBet 0 2.06 / 1.89 0 2.04 / 1.90 0 0
Betano +0.25 1.72 / 1.62 +0.25 1.70 / 1.62 +0.25 0
BetVictor 0 1.91 / 1.77 0 1.89 / 1.78 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 11.50 11.00
-2.00 10.50 9.80
-1.75 7.34 6.41
-1.50 5.50 4.95
-1.25 5.08 4.53
-1.00 4.65 4.15
-0.75 3.34 3.02
-0.25 2.45 2.17
0 2.04 1.90
+0.25 1.66 1.65
+0.75 1.34 1.30
+1.00 1.20 1.16
+1.25 1.16 1.14
+1.50 1.13 1.11
+1.75 1.06 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 6.40
-1.50 5.50 4.80
-1.25 5.00 4.40
-1.00 4.50 3.90
-0.75 3.30 3.00
-0.50 2.68 2.42
-0.25 2.35 2.15
0 1.98 1.88
+0.25 1.68 1.58
+0.50 1.52 1.45
+0.75 1.38 1.32
+1.00 1.24 1.19
+1.25 1.20 1.17
+1.50 1.18 1.15
+1.75 1.12 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.40 4.00
-0.75 3.10 2.91
-0.50 2.54 2.39
-0.25 2.22 2.08
0 1.89 1.78
+0.25 1.64 1.56
+0.50 1.49 1.44
+0.75 1.34 1.30
+1.00 1.19 1.16

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.40 3.10
-0.50 2.75 2.55
-0.25 2.37 2.22
+0.25 1.70 1.62
+0.50 1.55 1.47
+0.75 1.39 1.34

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.20 6.40
-1.50 5.50 4.95
-1.25 5.10 4.55
-1.00 4.65 4.05
-0.75 3.34 2.99
-0.25 2.34 2.16
0 1.98 1.83
+0.25 1.67 1.57
+0.75 1.36 1.30
+1.00 1.21 1.16
+1.25 1.16 1.13
+1.50 1.13 1.10
+1.75 1.07 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.94 4.42
-0.75 3.51 3.21
-0.50 2.84 2.63
-0.25 2.45 2.26
0 2.04 1.88
+0.25 1.71 1.62
+0.50 1.53 1.47
+0.75 1.38 1.34
+1.00 1.24 1.21

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.38 2.26
+0.25 1.70 1.63
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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