Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies / Vanuatu vs New Caledonia

Prediction Audit: Vanuatu vs New Caledonia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vanuatu Vanuatu
Sep 27, 2026 - 04:00
4 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 43%
New Caledonia New Caledonia

The model missed the final outcome (Vanuatu win 4–1).

The model had projected New Caledonia at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 New Caledonia Vanuatu ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +3.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vanuatu 33.8% 36.1% -2.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.1% +3.5 pp Aligned
New Caledonia 36.6% 37.8% -1.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Vanuatu win 4–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Vanuatu win 4–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vanuatu 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · New Caledonia 36.6%
    • xG · Vanuatu 1.27 — New Caledonia 1.33
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 03:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vanuatu 2.64 · Draw 3.65 · New Caledonia 2.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Vanuatu 36.1% · Draw 26.1% · New Caledonia 37.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vanuatu 2.64 · Draw 3.65 · New Caledonia 2.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Vanuatu 36.1% · Draw 26.1% · New Caledonia 37.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vanuatu win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 82/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10079609

Closing Odds 3.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vanuatu win · Vanuatu 4–1 New Caledonia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Friendlies
  • Fixture: Vanuatu vs New Caledonia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 04:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Vanuatu 1.27 — New Caledonia 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.6% · Probability edge: +7.2 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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