The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Papua New Guinea at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Papua New Guinea Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papua New Guinea | 39.5% | 32.6% | +6.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.8% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Solomon Islands | 31.0% | 40.6% | -9.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Solomon Islands's win probability at 40.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Solomon Islands. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Papua New Guinea; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Papua New Guinea by 9.6 percentage points (49.1% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Papua New Guinea 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Solomon Islands 31.0%
- xG · Papua New Guinea 1.39 — Solomon Islands 1.21
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 03:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Papua New Guinea 2.89 · Draw 3.41 · Solomon Islands 2.26
- Implied 1X2 · Papua New Guinea 32.0% · Draw 27.1% · Solomon Islands 40.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Papua New Guinea 2.84 · Draw 3.45 · Solomon Islands 2.28
- Implied 1X2 · Papua New Guinea 32.6% · Draw 26.8% · Solomon Islands 40.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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