預測 / 世界盃 2026 / 土耳其 vs 巴拉圭

土耳其 vs 巴拉圭

Group D
土耳其 土耳其
Jun 20, 2026 - 03:00
0 1.47
1 1.23
巴拉圭 巴拉圭

Betting Signal

模型表示
土耳其 41.0%
狀態
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The statistical model leans 土耳其 (41.0%).

The model and market both lean 土耳其, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and 巴拉圭 remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

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AI預測
土耳其 41.0%
Draw 28.8%
巴拉圭 30.3%

基於 Elo 調整的 Poisson 模擬生成。非莊家賠率。

顯示完整模型數據
泊松進球線概率
讓球 大球 小球
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
比賽預期
大於 2.5 球
50.6%
Balanced
小於2.5球
49.4%
雙方均進球
56.1%
Balanced
可能零封
43.9%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 56.1% · No 43.9% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

最可能的比分
比分 概率
1-1 13.7%
2-1 8.9%
0-0 8.3%
1-0 8.3%
1-2 7.5%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.7% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

常見問題
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

比賽階段: 已結束

決策生命周期

當前階段: 封盤不可用

  1. 預測已生成
  2. 市場已比較
    進場 待處理
  3. 驗證通過
  4. 結束已記錄
    結束中 不可用 無完整賽前封盤快照
  5. CLV已評估
    CLV 待處理 需要全場結束後的封盤線
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