Tłuchowia vs Stargard Szczeciński Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tłuchowia

May 23, 2026 - 16:00

1.45

1.25

42% 26% 33%

Stargard Szczeciński

Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)

BTTS No — Value

EV 31.5% Model 55.5%

Over / Under 2.5 Best value (+EV)

Over 2.5 57.7% · Under 2.5 42.3%

EV Over -9.99% · EV Under 5.75%

Value lean: Under 2.5

1X2 Lean

Tłuchowia · Model 41.8%

implied 21.9%

EV: 1.3%

Best line EV (1X2) 1.3%

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 11.0%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).

Decision strength: 6.5 / 10

Primary line identified (+1.0)
Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)

O/U 2.5: EV Over -9.99% · EV Under 5.75% (6 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -30.14% · EV No 31.54%

Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: III Liga - Group 2
Fixture: Tłuchowia vs Stargard Szczeciński
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Tłuchowia 1.45 — Stargard Szczeciński 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 55.5% · Implied: 40.1% · Probability edge: +15.4 pts · Est. EV: +31.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 44.5% · No 55.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: BTTS No.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 22, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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III Liga - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	32	23	5	4	74
2	Luzino	32	23	4	5	73
3	Polonia Środa	32	18	6	8	60
4	Lech Poznań II	32	14	7	11	49
5	Elana Toruń	32	14	7	11	49
6	Flota Świnoujście	32	14	6	12	48
7	Wda Świecie	32	14	6	12	48
8	Kluczevia Stargard	32	13	7	12	46
9	Lipno Stęszew	32	13	6	13	45
10	Unia Swarzędz	32	12	8	12	44
11	Noteć Czarnków	32	12	7	14	43
12	Stargard Szczeciński	32	10	9	13	39
13	Victoria Września	32	12	3	17	39
14	Cartusia Kartuzy	32	11	4	17	37
15	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	32	9	9	14	36
16	Pogoń Szczecin II	32	10	5	17	35
17	Tłuchowia	32	7	6	18	28
18	Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal	32	3	6	23	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Luzino	32	76	35	+41	73
2	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	32	69	23	+46	74
3	Lech Poznań II	32	66	49	+17	49
4	Polonia Środa	32	63	41	+22	60
5	Pogoń Szczecin II	32	58	64	-6	35
6	Kluczevia Stargard	32	51	38	+13	46
7	Stargard Szczeciński	32	49	50	-1	39
8	Flota Świnoujście	32	48	49	-1	48
9	Elana Toruń	32	47	47	0	49
10	Noteć Czarnków	32	43	45	-2	43
11	Wda Świecie	32	42	50	-8	48
12	Unia Swarzędz	32	41	36	+5	44
13	Lipno Stęszew	32	40	50	-10	45
14	Victoria Września	32	38	42	-4	39
15	Cartusia Kartuzy	32	38	49	-11	37
16	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	32	31	44	-13	36
17	Tłuchowia	32	31	60	-29	28
18	Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal	32	18	77	-59	15