Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Lipno Stęszew

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Lipno Stęszew Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
May 09, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Lipno Stęszew Lipno Stęszew
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Next AI Predictions Available Today

View Today's Football Predictions See Upcoming III Liga - Group 2 Matches Track Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce Next Match Prediction Track Lipno Stęszew Next Match Prediction

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Lipno Stęszew
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1.45 — Lipno Stęszew 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 50.6% · Over 2.5 49.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default bet: no tracked line clears the headline minimum +EV threshold at the best prices we have (a leg can still show small +EV below that bar). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Best Bet + Reason

No clear +EV headline on this snapshot.

Treat this page as a read-only diagnostic: totals/BTTS structure can be informative even when the honest answer is to wait.

Re-check after material price moves; edges appear and disappear with liquidity.

FAQ

Should I still read the 1X2 card?

Yes — it shows whether any winner price clears value. Here it often explains why there is no headline: probabilities can be clustered while prices already embed that uncertainty.

Why is there no “best bet” on this page?

The headline engine uses a minimum +EV threshold (e.g. 2%) for a default pick. A line can still show tiny +EV that fails that bar — we still call it no default bet so readers do not over-size thin edges.

When would a headline +EV return?

When odds move enough that implied probabilities drop relative to the same model snapshot, or when more book prices arrive so EV can be computed reliably — then re-run the pipeline.

Is the most likely correct score still relevant?

As context only: it is still a low absolute probability tail outcome (often in the single digits, sometimes low teens). It does not override the “no headline +EV” stance — treat score bets as fun-sized if you play them at all.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 22, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 32 23 5 4 74
2 Luzino 32 23 4 5 73
3 Polonia Środa 32 18 6 8 60
4 Lech Poznań II 32 14 7 11 49
5 Elana Toruń 32 14 7 11 49
6 Flota Świnoujście 32 14 6 12 48
7 Wda Świecie 32 14 6 12 48
8 Kluczevia Stargard 32 13 7 12 46
9 Lipno Stęszew 32 13 6 13 45
10 Unia Swarzędz 32 12 8 12 44
11 Noteć Czarnków 32 12 7 14 43
12 Stargard Szczeciński 32 10 9 13 39
13 Victoria Września 32 12 3 17 39
14 Cartusia Kartuzy 32 11 4 17 37
15 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 32 9 9 14 36
16 Pogoń Szczecin II 32 10 5 17 35
17 Tłuchowia 32 7 6 18 28
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 32 3 6 23 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 32 76 35 +41 73
2 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 32 69 23 +46 74
3 Lech Poznań II 32 66 49 +17 49
4 Polonia Środa 32 63 41 +22 60
5 Pogoń Szczecin II 32 58 64 -6 35
6 Kluczevia Stargard 32 51 38 +13 46
7 Stargard Szczeciński 32 49 50 -1 39
8 Flota Świnoujście 32 48 49 -1 48
9 Elana Toruń 32 47 47 0 49
10 Noteć Czarnków 32 43 45 -2 43
11 Wda Świecie 32 42 50 -8 48
12 Unia Swarzędz 32 41 36 +5 44
13 Lipno Stęszew 32 40 50 -10 45
14 Victoria Września 32 38 42 -4 39
15 Cartusia Kartuzy 32 38 49 -11 37
16 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 32 31 44 -13 36
17 Tłuchowia 32 31 60 -29 28
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 32 18 77 -59 15
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions
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