Dundee vs Motherwell Sharp money alert: Dundee ↓ -20.0% market move detected

Dundee

Feb 04, 2026 - 19:45

1.04

1.70

22% 27% 51%

Motherwell

Forecast Assessment

Reliable forecast

Favourite: Motherwell Slight favourite
Model probability: 51.3%
Market probability: 47.7%
Market agreement: Strong
Validation: Pass

Summary:

The model and market both identify Motherwell as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Dundee ↓ -20.0% 4.75 → 3.8
Move type: 🔥 Strong steam
Steam Score: 94A+
Strong multi-book steam
Market breadth: 12/14
Phase: Sharp repricing
Ref book: Bet365
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Dundee

🐢 Slow drift over 187h 9m

Open 5.00

Low / High 3.25

Current 3.80

Market Narrative

12/14 books synchronized on Dundee (20.0% steam, score 94) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.

Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Strong
Validation: Pass
Largest gap: Motherwell +3.7 pp
Breadth: 12/14
Current market activity: Dundee odds shortened ↓ -20.0%.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

However, recent buying interest has been on Dundee, with odds shortening by 20.0%.

Buying interest on Dundee — odds shortened by 20.0%.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Dundee	21.66%	23.9%	-2.2 pp
Draw	27.0%	28.43%	-1.4 pp
Motherwell	51.34%	47.67%	+3.7 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

No value on 1X2 (Motherwell vs. current odds)
Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
Significant line move — see market context below.

Moderate conviction (5/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.

1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market

Match: 51.3% Motherwell; Market consensus (3-way) 47.7%; Consensus-line EV -1.5%

No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.

⭐ Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%

Value lean: BTTS Yes

Over / Under 2.5 Pass

Over 2.5 51.6% · Under 2.5 48.4%

Value lean: Over 2.5

1X2 Poor value

Motherwell · Model probability 51.3%

Market consensus (3-way) 47.7%

Consensus-line EV: -1.5%

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 11.4%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.

Decision strength: 5.0 / 10

No line above +EV threshold in tracked markets (−0.5)
No line above +EV threshold in tracked markets (−0.5)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Dundee market context before kickoff

🔥 Strong steam on Dundee

Odds move: 4.75 → 3.80 (↓ -20.0%)
Market breadth: 12/14
Steam score: 94 (A+)
Current status: Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 1.98
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Premiership — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heart Of Midlothian	33	21	7	5	70
2	Rangers	33	19	12	2	69
3	Celtic	33	21	4	8	67
4	Motherwell	33	14	12	7	54
5	Hibernian	33	13	12	8	51
6	Falkirk	33	13	7	13	46
7	Dundee Utd	33	9	13	11	40
8	Aberdeen	33	9	6	18	33
9	Dundee	33	8	9	16	33
10	ST Mirren	33	7	9	17	30
11	Kilmarnock	33	6	10	17	28
12	Livingston	33	1	13	19	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rangers	33	66	31	+35	69
2	Celtic	33	59	35	+24	67
3	Heart Of Midlothian	33	58	28	+30	70
4	Motherwell	33	52	29	+23	54
5	Hibernian	33	51	37	+14	51
6	Falkirk	33	45	48	-3	46
7	Dundee Utd	33	45	54	-9	40
8	Kilmarnock	33	37	65	-28	28
9	Livingston	33	35	66	-31	16
10	Dundee	33	34	53	-19	33
11	Aberdeen	33	33	48	-15	33
12	ST Mirren	33	27	48	-21	30

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Celtic	33	53.2	26.7	+26.5	67
2	Rangers	33	53.1	30.6	+22.5	69
3	Heart Of Midlothian	33	43.5	29.4	+14.1	70
4	Motherwell	33	42.9	30.6	+12.3	54
5	Hibernian	33	42.4	35.3	+7.1	51
6	Falkirk	33	38.5	38.7	-0.2	46
7	ST Mirren	33	30.2	35.4	-5.2	30
8	Dundee Utd	33	36.0	45.4	-9.4	40
9	Aberdeen	33	35.0	47.8	-12.8	33
10	Dundee	33	30.9	44.9	-14.0	33
11	Kilmarnock	33	33.7	52.8	-19.1	28
12	Livingston	33	28.8	50.8	-22.0	16