Mes Kerman vs Saipa Statistics & Analysis

Mes Kerman

Sep 22, 2026 - 12:30

0 1.25

1 1.35

xG Accuracy: 64%

Saipa

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Saipa Saipa ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8988895

Closing Odds 2.71

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Saipa win · Mes Kerman 0–1 Saipa

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Mes Kerman (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 17.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Mes Kerman (1X2)	32.9	29.8	+3.1
Draw (1X2)	29.6	32.9	-3.3
Saipa (1X2)	37.6	37.3	+0.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	30.4	+17.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	69.6	-17.8
BTTS Yes	54.5	38.5	+16.0
BTTS No	45.5	61.5	-16.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 30.4%. The difference — about 17.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Mes Kerman (1X2)	2.99	2.99
Draw (1X2)	2.71	2.71
Saipa (1X2)	2.39	2.39
Over 2.5 goals	2.97	2.97
Under 2.5 goals	1.3	1.3
BTTS Yes	2.36	2.36
BTTS No	1.48	1.48

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Azadegan League
Fixture: Mes Kerman vs Saipa
Kickoff: 2026-09-22 12:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Mes Kerman 1.25 — Saipa 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 39.1% · Probability edge: +15.4 pts · Est. EV: +28.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Saipa	2	2	0	0	6
2	Be'sat Kermanshah	2	1	1	0	4
3	Fard Alborz	2	1	1	0	4
4	Naft Bandar Abbas	2	1	1	0	4
5	Naft Masjed Soleyman	2	1	0	1	3
6	Niroye Zamini	2	1	0	1	3
7	Ario Eslamshahr	2	1	0	1	3
8	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	2	0	2	0	2
9	Shahin Bandar Ameri	2	0	2	0	2
10	Mes Rafsanjan	2	0	2	0	2
11	Pars Jonoubi JAM	2	0	2	0	2
12	Novin Ahvaz	2	0	1	1	1
13	Mes Kerman	2	0	1	1	1
14	Naft Gachsaran	2	0	1	1	1
15	Mes Soongoun	2	0	1	1	1
16	Havadar	2	0	1	1	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Saipa	2	3	0	+3	6
2	Be'sat Kermanshah	2	3	0	+3	4
3	Naft Masjed Soleyman	2	3	1	+2	3
4	Fard Alborz	2	2	1	+1	4
5	Naft Bandar Abbas	2	2	1	+1	4
6	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	2	2	2	0	2
7	Novin Ahvaz	2	2	3	-1	1
8	Niroye Zamini	2	1	1	0	3
9	Shahin Bandar Ameri	2	1	1	0	2
10	Mes Kerman	2	1	2	-1	1
11	Ario Eslamshahr	2	1	3	-2	3
12	Mes Rafsanjan	2	0	0	0	2
13	Pars Jonoubi JAM	2	0	0	0	2
14	Naft Gachsaran	2	0	1	-1	1
15	Mes Soongoun	2	0	2	-2	1
16	Havadar	2	0	3	-3	1