AI correctly predicted the Ario Eslamshahr win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ario Eslamshahr | 35.6% | 50.3% | -14.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.1% | -0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Havadar | 34.7% | 19.6% | +15.1 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Havadar's win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.6%, a difference of 15.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ario Eslamshahr win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Havadar.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ario Eslamshahr more conservatively (20.5% vs model 35.6%, 15.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ario Eslamshahr win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ario Eslamshahr 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Havadar 34.7%
- xG · Ario Eslamshahr 1.31 — Havadar 1.29
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 13:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Ario Eslamshahr 1.77 · Draw 2.96 · Havadar 4.55
- Implied 1X2 · Ario Eslamshahr 50.3% · Draw 30.1% · Havadar 19.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ario Eslamshahr 1.77 · Draw 2.96 · Havadar 4.55
- Implied 1X2 · Ario Eslamshahr 50.3% · Draw 30.1% · Havadar 19.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ario Eslamshahr win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Azadegan League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Ario Eslamshahr | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Fard Alborz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Niroye Zamini | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Mes Rafsanjan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Novin Ahvaz | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 5 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Ario Eslamshahr | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Fard Alborz | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Niroye Zamini | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Mes Kerman | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Mes Soongoun | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Mes Rafsanjan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Naft Gachsaran | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
