Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Ironi Nesher Statistics & Analysis

Ironi Baka El Garbiya

Sep 09, 2026 - 17:30

0 1.39

2 1.21

xG Accuracy: 55%

Ironi Nesher

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya Ironi Nesher ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 07:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6746766

Closing Odds 1.88

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Ironi Nesher win · Ironi Baka El Garbiya 0–2 Ironi Nesher

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ironi Baka El Garbiya (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ironi Baka El Garbiya (1X2) by about 15.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ironi Baka El Garbiya (1X2)	39.5	24.0	+15.4
Draw (1X2)	29.5	29.0	+0.5
Ironi Nesher (1X2)	31.0	46.9	-15.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	52.2	-4.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	47.8	+4.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.5% on Ironi Baka El Garbiya (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.0%. The difference — about 15.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Ironi Baka El Garbiya (1X2)	3.67	3.67
Draw (1X2)	3.04	3.04
Ironi Nesher (1X2)	1.88	1.88
Over 2.5 goals	1.77	1.77
Under 2.5 goals	1.93	1.93

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga Alef
Fixture: Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Ironi Nesher
Kickoff: 2026-09-09 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1.39 — Ironi Nesher 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.0% · Probability edge: +7.8 pts · Est. EV: +14.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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