Statistics / Football / Bolivia. Primera División / Independiente Petrolero vs Guabirá

Independiente Petrolero vs Guabirá Statistics & Analysis

Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero
Aug 27, 2026 - 22:30
3 1.57
1 1.37
xG Accuracy: 61%
Guabirá Guabirá
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 21, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4779982

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Independiente Petrolero win · Independiente Petrolero 3–1 Guabirá
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Guabirá (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Guabirá (1X2) by about 5.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Independiente Petrolero (1X2) 40.7 47.6 -6.9
Draw (1X2) 27.4 26.1 +1.4
Guabirá (1X2) 31.9 26.4 +5.5
Over 2.5 goals 56.3 57.6 -1.3
Under 2.5 goals 43.7 42.4 +1.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Guabirá (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.4%. The difference — about 5.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Independiente Petrolero (1X2) 1.91 1.91 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.49 3.49 0.0
Guabirá (1X2) 3.45 3.45 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.2 2.2 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Independiente Petrolero vs Guabirá
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-27 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.7% · Draw 27.4% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Independiente Petrolero 1.57 — Guabirá 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.94)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.7% · Over 2.5 56.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.6% · No 39.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.6% · No 39.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Always Ready 19 12 6 1 42
2 Bolívar 18 12 3 3 39
3 The Strongest 19 11 6 2 39
4 Aurora 19 7 9 3 30
5 Real Potosí 19 7 8 4 29
6 Oriente Petrolero 19 8 3 8 27
7 Nacional Potosí 19 8 3 8 27
8 Blooming 19 6 8 5 26
9 Guabirá 19 7 5 7 26
10 Independiente Petrolero 19 7 4 8 25
11 Real Oruro 19 6 3 10 21
12 ABB 19 6 2 11 20
13 Universitario de Vinto 19 5 2 12 17
14 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 19 5 2 12 17
15 Real Tomayapo 18 4 4 10 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 19 2 8 9 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 18 48 19 +29 39
2 Always Ready 19 43 13 +30 42
3 The Strongest 19 37 21 +16 39
4 Oriente Petrolero 19 34 27 +7 27
5 Real Oruro 19 32 48 -16 21
6 Aurora 19 30 24 +6 30
7 Nacional Potosí 19 30 24 +6 27
8 ABB 19 30 43 -13 20
9 Blooming 19 29 21 +8 26
10 Guabirá 19 29 38 -9 26
11 Independiente Petrolero 19 26 32 -6 25
12 Real Potosí 19 25 14 +11 29
13 Universitario de Vinto 19 25 38 -13 17
14 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 19 19 33 -14 14
15 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 19 18 39 -21 17
16 Real Tomayapo 18 14 35 -21 16
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 18 1.6 1.4 +0.2 39
2 Real Potosí 19 1.4 1.6 -0.2 29
3 Always Ready 19 — — — 42
4 The Strongest 19 — — — 39
5 Aurora 19 — — — 30
6 Oriente Petrolero 19 — — — 27
7 Nacional Potosí 19 — — — 27
8 Blooming 19 — — — 26
9 Guabirá 19 — — — 26
10 Independiente Petrolero 19 — — — 25
11 Real Oruro 19 — — — 21
12 ABB 19 — — — 20
13 Universitario de Vinto 19 — — — 17
14 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 19 — — — 17
15 Real Tomayapo 18 — — — 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 19 — — — 14
Primera División Bolivia. Primera División Predictions