Predictions / Football / Bolivia. Primera División / Independiente Petrolero vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo

Prediction Audit: Independiente Petrolero vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero
Sep 18, 2026 - 23:15
1 1.51
3 1.43
xG Accuracy: 56%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo San Antonio Bulo Bulo

The model missed the final outcome (San Antonio Bulo Bulo win 1–3).

The model had projected Independiente Petrolero at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Independiente Petrolero San Antonio Bulo Bulo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Independiente Petrolero higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Independiente Petrolero -16.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Independiente Petrolero 38.0% 54.2% -16.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.5% 22.9% +4.6 pp Aligned
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 34.5% 22.8% +11.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Independiente Petrolero's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 16.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was San Antonio Bulo Bulo win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Independiente Petrolero than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.94) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Independiente Petrolero by 16.2 percentage points (54.2% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Independiente Petrolero 38.0% · Draw 27.5% · San Antonio Bulo Bulo 34.5%
    • xG · Independiente Petrolero 1.51 — San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1.43
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Independiente Petrolero 1.67 · Draw 3.95 · San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3.97
    • Implied 1X2 · Independiente Petrolero 54.2% · Draw 22.9% · San Antonio Bulo Bulo 22.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Independiente Petrolero 1.67 · Draw 3.95 · San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3.97
    • Implied 1X2 · Independiente Petrolero 54.2% · Draw 22.9% · San Antonio Bulo Bulo 22.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 23:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result San Antonio Bulo Bulo win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8233644

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result San Antonio Bulo Bulo win · Independiente Petrolero 1–3 San Antonio Bulo Bulo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Independiente Petrolero vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 27.5% · Away 34.5%
  • xG (showing): Independiente Petrolero 1.51 — San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.94)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.7% · Over 2.5 56.3%); BTTS No (Yes 60.8% · No 39.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.8% · No 39.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Always Ready 20 13 6 1 45
2 Bolívar 20 14 3 3 45
3 The Strongest 20 12 6 2 42
4 Real Potosí 20 8 8 4 32
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 9 3 8 30
6 Aurora 20 7 9 4 30
7 Guabirá 20 8 5 7 29
8 Blooming 20 6 9 5 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 8 3 9 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 7 4 9 25
11 Real Oruro 20 6 3 11 21
12 ABB 20 6 2 12 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 6 2 12 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 5 3 12 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 4 4 12 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 2 8 10 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 54 22 +32 45
2 Always Ready 20 47 13 +34 45
3 The Strongest 20 39 22 +17 42
4 Oriente Petrolero 20 36 27 +9 30
5 Guabirá 20 32 39 -7 29
6 Real Oruro 20 32 50 -18 21
7 Aurora 20 31 27 +4 30
8 ABB 20 31 45 -14 20
9 Blooming 20 30 22 +8 27
10 Nacional Potosí 20 30 28 +2 27
11 Real Potosí 20 27 14 +13 32
12 Independiente Petrolero 20 27 35 -8 25
13 Universitario de Vinto 20 26 39 -13 18
14 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 21 37 -16 14
15 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 21 40 -19 20
16 Real Tomayapo 20 15 39 -24 16
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 1.6 1.4 +0.2 45
2 Real Potosí 20 1.4 1.6 -0.2 32
3 Always Ready 20 — — — 45
4 The Strongest 20 — — — 42
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 — — — 30
6 Aurora 20 — — — 30
7 Guabirá 20 — — — 29
8 Blooming 20 — — — 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 — — — 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 — — — 25
11 Real Oruro 20 — — — 21
12 ABB 20 — — — 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 — — — 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 — — — 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 — — — 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 — — — 14