Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 / Santomera vs Algar

Santomera vs Algar Statistics & Analysis

Santomera Santomera
Sep 20, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 57%
Algar Algar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Algar Santomera ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8691029

Closing Odds 1.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Santomera win · Santomera 2–0 Algar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Algar (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Algar (1X2) by about 25.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Santomera (1X2) 33.8 68.2 -34.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 20.4 +9.3
Algar (1X2) 36.6 11.4 +25.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.2 -5.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.8 +5.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.6% on Algar (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.4%. The difference — about 25.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Santomera (1X2) 1.33 1.33 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.45 4.45 0.0
Algar (1X2) 7.96 7.96 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.99 1.99 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Algar; market prices Santomera instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Santomera 1.27 xG vs Algar 1.33 → Algar 36.6%
  • Market: Santomera ~11.4% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bullas Deportivo 2 1 1 0 4
2 Unión Molinense 2 1 1 0 4
3 Atlético Pulpileño 2 1 1 0 4
4 San Javier 2 1 1 0 4
5 Santomera 2 1 1 0 4
6 Cotillas CD 2 1 1 0 4
7 Bala Azul 2 1 1 0 4
8 SFC Minerva 2 1 1 0 4
9 UCAM Murcia II 2 1 0 1 3
10 Santa Cruz 2 1 0 1 3
11 Los Garres 2 0 2 0 2
12 Águilas II 2 0 2 0 2
13 Alcantarilla 2 0 2 0 2
14 Olímpico Totana 2 0 1 1 1
15 Cartagena LU II 2 0 1 1 1
16 Mazarrón FC 2 0 0 2 0
17 Algar 2 0 0 2 0
18 Balsicas Atlético 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Unión Molinense 2 6 4 +2 4
2 UCAM Murcia II 2 5 2 +3 3
3 San Javier 2 5 4 +1 4
4 Bullas Deportivo 2 4 1 +3 4
5 Santomera 2 4 3 +1 4
6 Cotillas CD 2 4 3 +1 4
7 Santa Cruz 2 4 4 0 3
8 Bala Azul 2 3 2 +1 4
9 Los Garres 2 3 3 0 2
10 Águilas II 2 3 3 0 2
11 Olímpico Totana 2 3 4 -1 1
12 Atlético Pulpileño 2 2 0 +2 4
13 Cartagena LU II 2 2 4 -2 1
14 SFC Minerva 2 1 0 +1 4
15 Alcantarilla 2 1 1 0 2
16 Mazarrón FC 2 1 3 -2 0
17 Algar 2 0 5 -5 0
18 Balsicas Atlético 2 0 5 -5 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Predictions