Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 / Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla

Prediction Audit: Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bala Azul Bala Azul
Sep 27, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 64%
Alcantarilla Alcantarilla

The model missed the final outcome (Alcantarilla win 0–1).

The model had projected Bala Azul at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bala Azul Alcantarilla ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Bala Azul higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bala Azul -7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bala Azul 41.4% 48.8% -7.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 28.8% +0.6 pp Aligned
Alcantarilla 29.2% 22.4% +6.8 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Bala Azul's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Alcantarilla win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Bala Azul. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bala Azul by 7.4 percentage points (48.8% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bala Azul 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Alcantarilla 29.3%
    • xG · Bala Azul 1.43 — Alcantarilla 1.17
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bala Azul 1.85 · Draw 3.14 · Alcantarilla 4.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Bala Azul 48.8% · Draw 28.8% · Alcantarilla 22.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bala Azul 1.85 · Draw 3.14 · Alcantarilla 4.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Bala Azul 48.8% · Draw 28.8% · Alcantarilla 22.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Alcantarilla win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10108216

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alcantarilla win · Bala Azul 0–1 Alcantarilla
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
  • Fixture: Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Bala Azul 1.43 — Alcantarilla 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.1% · Implied: 47.0% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +6.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Santomera 3 2 1 0 7
2 San Javier 3 2 1 0 7
3 Bullas Deportivo 3 1 2 0 5
4 Alcantarilla 3 1 2 0 5
5 Atlético Pulpileño 3 1 2 0 5
6 Los Garres 3 1 2 0 5
7 Bala Azul 3 1 2 0 5
8 Santa Cruz 4 1 2 1 5
9 UCAM Murcia II 3 1 1 1 4
10 Unión Molinense 3 1 1 1 4
11 Olímpico Totana 3 1 1 1 4
12 Águilas II 4 0 4 0 4
13 SFC Minerva 3 1 1 1 4
14 Cotillas CD 3 1 1 1 4
15 Cartagena LU II 3 0 2 1 2
16 Mazarrón FC 3 0 1 2 1
17 Balsicas Atlético 3 0 0 3 0
18 Algar 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UCAM Murcia II 3 7 4 +3 4
2 Santa Cruz 4 7 7 0 5
3 Santomera 3 6 3 +3 7
4 San Javier 3 6 4 +2 7
5 Unión Molinense 3 6 5 +1 4
6 Bullas Deportivo 3 4 1 +3 5
7 Los Garres 3 4 3 +1 5
8 Olímpico Totana 3 4 4 0 4
9 Águilas II 4 4 4 0 4
10 Cotillas CD 3 4 5 -1 4
11 Cartagena LU II 3 4 6 -2 2
12 Alcantarilla 3 3 1 +2 5
13 Bala Azul 3 3 2 +1 5
14 Mazarrón FC 3 3 5 -2 1
15 Atlético Pulpileño 3 2 0 +2 5
16 SFC Minerva 3 1 1 0 4
17 Balsicas Atlético 3 0 6 -6 0
18 Algar 3 0 7 -7 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Predictions