The model missed the final outcome (Balsicas Atlético win 1–2).
The model had projected Algar at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Algar Balsicas Atlético ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algar | 35.6% | 25.6% | +10.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.0% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Balsicas Atlético | 34.7% | 45.5% | -10.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Balsicas Atlético's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Balsicas Atlético win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Balsicas Atlético than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Algar; match finished Balsicas Atlético
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Algar by 10.8 percentage points (46.4% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Algar 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Balsicas Atlético 34.7%
- xG · Algar 1.31 — Balsicas Atlético 1.29
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Algar 3.54 · Draw 3.12 · Balsicas Atlético 1.99
- Implied 1X2 · Algar 25.6% · Draw 29.0% · Balsicas Atlético 45.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Algar 3.54 · Draw 3.12 · Balsicas Atlético 1.99
- Implied 1X2 · Algar 25.6% · Draw 29.0% · Balsicas Atlético 45.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Balsicas Atlético win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santomera | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | San Javier | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Bullas Deportivo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Alcantarilla | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Atlético Pulpileño | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Los Garres | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Bala Azul | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | UCAM Murcia II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Unión Molinense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Olímpico Totana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Águilas II | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | SFC Minerva | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Cotillas CD | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Cartagena LU II | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Mazarrón FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Balsicas Atlético | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Algar | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCAM Murcia II | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| 3 | Santomera | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | San Javier | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Unión Molinense | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | Bullas Deportivo | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 7 | Los Garres | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | Olímpico Totana | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Águilas II | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Cotillas CD | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Cartagena LU II | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2 |
| 12 | Alcantarilla | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Bala Azul | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Mazarrón FC | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Atlético Pulpileño | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 16 | SFC Minerva | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Balsicas Atlético | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Algar | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
