Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Jadran LP Statistics & Analysis

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Sep 06, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.35

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 64%

Jadran LP

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo Bsk Bijelo Brdo ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6362970

Closing Odds 2.67

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Bsk Bijelo Brdo win · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1–0 Jadran LP

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.74 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 3.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Bsk Bijelo Brdo (1X2)	37.6	36.3	+1.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	29.4	+0.2
Jadran LP (1X2)	32.9	34.3	-1.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	44.5	+3.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	55.5	-3.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 44.5%. The difference — about 3.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Bsk Bijelo Brdo (1X2)	2.49	2.52	-0.0
Draw (1X2)	3.1	3.12	+0.1
Jadran LP (1X2)	2.63	2.67	-0.1
Over 2.5 goals	2.06	2.11	-0.7
Under 2.5 goals	1.7	1.69	+0.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: First NL
Fixture: Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Jadran LP
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.35 — Jadran LP 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 50.9% · Probability edge: +3.6 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

First NL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Mladost Ždralovi	5	3	2	0	11
2	Croatia Zmijavci	4	3	1	0	10
3	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	5	3	1	1	10
4	Sesvete	5	3	0	2	9
5	Jadran LP	5	2	2	1	8
6	HNK Cibalia	5	1	4	0	7
7	Karlovac 1919	5	2	1	2	7
8	Segesta Sisak	5	2	1	2	7
9	Dinamo Zagreb U21	5	2	0	3	6
10	Dugopolje	5	1	3	1	6
11	Orijent 1919	5	1	2	2	5
12	Dubrava Zagreb	5	1	2	2	5
13	Vukovar	4	1	2	1	5
14	Opatija	5	1	1	3	4
15	Kustosija	5	0	3	2	3
16	Hrvace	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sesvete	5	8	4	+4	9
2	Jadran LP	5	8	5	+3	8
3	Dinamo Zagreb U21	5	8	8	0	6
4	Croatia Zmijavci	4	7	2	+5	10
5	Karlovac 1919	5	7	8	-1	7
6	Opatija	5	7	9	-2	4
7	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	5	6	4	+2	10
8	Dugopolje	5	6	6	0	6
9	Vukovar	4	6	8	-2	5
10	Mladost Ždralovi	5	5	2	+3	11
11	Orijent 1919	5	5	5	0	5
12	Segesta Sisak	5	5	6	-1	7
13	Dubrava Zagreb	5	5	6	-1	5
14	HNK Cibalia	5	4	3	+1	7
15	Kustosija	5	2	4	-2	3
16	Hrvace	5	2	11	-9	1