Predictions / Football / Croatia. First NL / Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Hrvace

Prediction Audit: Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Hrvace Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bsk Bijelo Brdo Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 74%
Hrvace Hrvace

The model missed the final outcome (Hrvace win 1–2).

The model had projected Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo Hrvace ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bsk Bijelo Brdo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bsk Bijelo Brdo -18.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 38.0% 56.2% -18.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.7% +3.9 pp Aligned
Hrvace 32.4% 18.2% +14.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Bsk Bijelo Brdo's win probability at 56.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 18.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hrvace win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Bsk Bijelo Brdo than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Bsk Bijelo Brdo; match finished Hrvace

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bsk Bijelo Brdo by 18.1 percentage points (56.1% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Hrvace 32.4%
    • xG · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.36 — Hrvace 1.24
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:22 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.61 · Draw 3.52 · Hrvace 4.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 56.2% · Draw 25.7% · Hrvace 18.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.61 · Draw 3.52 · Hrvace 4.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 56.2% · Draw 25.7% · Hrvace 18.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hrvace win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8695390

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hrvace win · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1–2 Hrvace
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First NL
  • Fixture: Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Hrvace
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1.36 — Hrvace 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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First NL First NL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 4 2 1 14
2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 4 1 2 13
3 Mladost Ždralovi 7 3 2 2 11
4 Croatia Zmijavci 6 3 1 2 10
5 HNK Cibalia 6 2 4 0 10
6 Segesta Sisak 6 3 1 2 10
7 Sesvete 6 3 0 3 9
8 Dugopolje 6 2 3 1 9
9 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 3 0 4 9
10 Dubrava Zagreb 7 2 2 3 8
11 Vukovar 6 2 2 2 8
12 Orijent 1919 7 2 2 3 8
13 Karlovac 1919 6 2 1 3 7
14 Hrvace 7 2 1 4 7
15 Kustosija 7 1 3 3 6
16 Opatija 6 1 1 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 12 7 +5 14
2 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 11 11 0 9
3 Vukovar 6 11 13 -2 8
4 Croatia Zmijavci 6 9 6 +3 10
5 Sesvete 6 9 6 +3 9
6 Dugopolje 6 9 8 +1 9
7 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 8 6 +2 13
8 Segesta Sisak 6 8 7 +1 10
9 Karlovac 1919 6 7 9 -2 7
10 Opatija 6 7 10 -3 4
11 Hrvace 7 7 12 -5 7
12 HNK Cibalia 6 6 4 +2 10
13 Mladost Ždralovi 7 6 6 0 11
14 Dubrava Zagreb 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Orijent 1919 7 6 8 -2 8
16 Kustosija 7 3 5 -2 6