Predictions / Football / Croatia. First NL / Kustosija vs Croatia Zmijavci

Prediction Audit: Kustosija vs Croatia Zmijavci Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kustosija Kustosija
Sep 20, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
Croatia Zmijavci Croatia Zmijavci

AI correctly predicted the Kustosija win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kustosija Kustosija ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Croatia Zmijavci -1.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kustosija 40.4% 40.0% +0.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 28.5% +0.9 pp Aligned
Croatia Zmijavci 30.1% 31.5% -1.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kustosija win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Kustosija win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kustosija 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Croatia Zmijavci 30.1%
    • xG · Kustosija 1.41 — Croatia Zmijavci 1.19
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kustosija 2.26 · Draw 3.17 · Croatia Zmijavci 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Kustosija 40.0% · Draw 28.5% · Croatia Zmijavci 31.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kustosija 2.26 · Draw 3.17 · Croatia Zmijavci 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Kustosija 40.0% · Draw 28.5% · Croatia Zmijavci 31.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kustosija win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 93/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8666249

Closing Odds 2.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kustosija win · Kustosija 1–0 Croatia Zmijavci
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First NL
  • Fixture: Kustosija vs Croatia Zmijavci
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Kustosija 1.41 — Croatia Zmijavci 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.0% · Probability edge: +5.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
First NL First NL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 4 2 1 14
2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 4 1 2 13
3 Mladost Ždralovi 7 3 2 2 11
4 Croatia Zmijavci 6 3 1 2 10
5 HNK Cibalia 6 2 4 0 10
6 Segesta Sisak 6 3 1 2 10
7 Sesvete 6 3 0 3 9
8 Dugopolje 6 2 3 1 9
9 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 3 0 4 9
10 Dubrava Zagreb 7 2 2 3 8
11 Vukovar 6 2 2 2 8
12 Orijent 1919 7 2 2 3 8
13 Karlovac 1919 6 2 1 3 7
14 Hrvace 7 2 1 4 7
15 Kustosija 7 1 3 3 6
16 Opatija 6 1 1 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 12 7 +5 14
2 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 11 11 0 9
3 Vukovar 6 11 13 -2 8
4 Croatia Zmijavci 6 9 6 +3 10
5 Sesvete 6 9 6 +3 9
6 Dugopolje 6 9 8 +1 9
7 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 8 6 +2 13
8 Segesta Sisak 6 8 7 +1 10
9 Karlovac 1919 6 7 9 -2 7
10 Opatija 6 7 10 -3 4
11 Hrvace 7 7 12 -5 7
12 HNK Cibalia 6 6 4 +2 10
13 Mladost Ždralovi 7 6 6 0 11
14 Dubrava Zagreb 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Orijent 1919 7 6 8 -2 8
16 Kustosija 7 3 5 -2 6