Ajka vs Soroksar Statistics & Analysis

Ajka

Sep 05, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.20

3 1.40

xG Accuracy: 46%

Soroksar

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Soroksar Soroksar ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6157696

Closing Odds 2.74

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Soroksar win · Ajka 0–3 Soroksar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Soroksar (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ajka (1X2)	30.6	33.0	-2.5
Draw (1X2)	29.5	28.9	+0.6
Soroksar (1X2)	40.0	38.0	+1.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	54.7	-6.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	45.3	+6.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.3%. The difference — about 6.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Ajka (1X2)	2.74	2.74
Draw (1X2)	3.13	3.13
Soroksar (1X2)	2.38	2.38
Over 2.5 goals	1.7	1.7
Under 2.5 goals	2.05	2.05

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: NB II
Fixture: Ajka vs Soroksar
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
xG (showing): Ajka 1.2 — Soroksar 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Soroksar	7	6	1	0	19
2	Tiszakecske FC	7	4	3	0	15
3	Kecskeméti TE	7	4	2	1	14
4	Kazincbarcikai	7	3	4	0	13
5	Gyirmot SE	7	4	1	2	13
6	Ajka	6	3	2	1	11
7	Karcag SE	7	2	4	1	10
8	Fehérvár FC	7	3	0	4	9
9	Mezokovesd-zsory	6	3	0	3	9
10	Szentlőrinc SE	6	2	1	3	7
11	Szeged 2011	6	1	3	2	6
12	Nagykanizsai ULE	7	2	0	5	6
13	BVSC	6	1	1	4	4
14	Diosgyori VTK	6	1	1	4	4
15	Csakvar	7	1	1	5	4
16	Kozarmisleny FC	7	1	0	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Soroksar	7	20	4	+16	19
2	Tiszakecske FC	7	14	7	+7	15
3	Kecskeméti TE	7	14	8	+6	14
4	Gyirmot SE	7	13	12	+1	13
5	Kazincbarcikai	7	12	7	+5	13
6	Karcag SE	7	12	10	+2	10
7	Fehérvár FC	7	11	10	+1	9
8	Ajka	6	8	6	+2	11
9	Csakvar	7	8	18	-10	4
10	Mezokovesd-zsory	6	7	7	0	9
11	Szeged 2011	6	6	7	-1	6
12	Szentlőrinc SE	6	6	8	-2	7
13	Nagykanizsai ULE	7	6	10	-4	6
14	Diosgyori VTK	6	6	15	-9	4
15	Kozarmisleny FC	7	5	15	-10	3
16	BVSC	6	3	7	-4	4