Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB II / Ajka vs Csakvar

Prediction Audit: Ajka vs Csakvar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ajka Ajka
Sep 19, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 64%
Csakvar Csakvar

The model missed the final outcome (Ajka win 1–0).

The model had projected Csakvar at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Csakvar Ajka ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ajka higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ajka -17.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ajka 31.5% 49.4% -17.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 26.6% +3.0 pp Aligned
Csakvar 39.0% 24.0% +14.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ajka's win probability at 49.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ajka win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ajka than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Csakvar; match finished Ajka

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Csakvar by 17.9 percentage points (56.9% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ajka 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Csakvar 39.0%
    • xG · Ajka 1.22 — Csakvar 1.38
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ajka 1.83 · Draw 3.40 · Csakvar 3.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Ajka 49.4% · Draw 26.6% · Csakvar 24.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ajka 1.83 · Draw 3.40 · Csakvar 3.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Ajka 49.4% · Draw 26.6% · Csakvar 24.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ajka win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8697809

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ajka win · Ajka 1–0 Csakvar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB II
  • Fixture: Ajka vs Csakvar
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Ajka 1.22 — Csakvar 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Soroksar 8 6 2 0 20
2 Kecskeméti TE 8 5 2 1 17
3 Tiszakecske FC 8 4 4 0 16
4 Ajka 7 4 2 1 14
5 Kazincbarcikai 8 3 4 1 13
6 Gyirmot SE 8 4 1 3 13
7 Mezokovesd-zsory 7 4 0 3 12
8 Karcag SE 8 2 5 1 11
9 Szentlőrinc SE 7 3 1 3 10
10 Fehérvár FC 8 3 0 5 9
11 Nagykanizsai ULE 8 3 0 5 9
12 Diosgyori VTK 7 2 1 4 7
13 Szeged 2011 7 1 3 3 6
14 BVSC 7 1 1 5 4
15 Kozarmisleny FC 8 1 1 6 4
16 Csakvar 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Soroksar 8 23 7 +16 20
2 Tiszakecske FC 8 17 10 +7 16
3 Kecskeméti TE 8 15 8 +7 17
4 Kazincbarcikai 8 13 11 +2 13
5 Karcag SE 8 13 11 +2 11
6 Gyirmot SE 8 13 14 -1 13
7 Mezokovesd-zsory 7 11 8 +3 12
8 Fehérvár FC 8 11 11 0 9
9 Ajka 7 9 6 +3 14
10 Szentlőrinc SE 7 8 9 -1 10
11 Diosgyori VTK 7 8 15 -7 7
12 Csakvar 8 8 19 -11 4
13 Nagykanizsai ULE 8 7 10 -3 9
14 Szeged 2011 7 6 8 -2 6
15 Kozarmisleny FC 8 6 16 -10 4
16 BVSC 7 4 9 -5 4